Investors are bracing themselves this year for elections in all of “Fragile Five” countries and a number of other emerging nations that are adding political concerns to those economies already vulnerable to capital flight risks.
Just when you think global financial markets are gradually winding down before Christmas, news of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s death hits the world.
Investors have been worried about the effect of a Chinese slowdown on Asian emerging markets, but the long-term growth story is still intact, according to specialist investment manager Matthews Asia.
The Olympic medals have all been handed out and the athletes are on their way home. Which countries surpassed expectations and which ones did worse than expected? And did this have anything to do with the state of their economies?
They may be among the only economies left to save the world — or at least the euro zone – but Russia, India and China are extremely risky bets, according to an economic, social and governance scale compiled by risk consultancy Maplecroft.
from The Great Debate:
By Ian Bremmer
The views expressed are his own.
All eyes should be peeled on China, but not for the reason you think. While the biggest structural risk right now is global rebalancing, especially between China and the U.S., there is another important threat from China: cyberwars. Cyberattacks are one of the biggest fat tails (along with climate and North Korea).
Half of India’s 1.2 billion people have been without power today, bringing transport, factories and offices to a grinding halt for the second day in a row and sparking rage amongst the sweltering population. That’s embarrassing enough for a country that prides itself as a member of the BRIC quartet of big emerging powerhouses along with Brazil, Russia and China. But the outages will also hit economic growth which is already at 10-year lows. And the power failures, highlighting India’s woeful infrastructure, bode poorly for the government’s plans to step up manufacturing and lure more foreign companies to the factory sector.