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November 8th, 2009

POLL: Is Goldman Sachs “doing God’s work”? Its CEO thinks so

Posted by: Reuters Staff

sunday-times

Check out the headline at the bottom left of the Sunday Times front page. The man the London paper calls the most powerful banker on Earth says he is "just a banker 'doing God’s work'" .

The report says Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein"proudly pays himself more in a year than most of us could ever dream of — $68m in 2007 alone, a record for any Wall Street CEO, to add to the more than $500m of Goldman stock he owns" .

Goldman Sachs looks set to pay about $20 billion in bonuses for its top traders this year, at a time when the fallout from last year's financial crisis is still being felt and the United States unemployment rate has hit 10.2 percent, a 26-1/2-year high.

In his defence, Blankfein said in the interview: "We help companies to grow by helping them to raise capital. Companies that grow create wealth. This, in turn, allows people to have jobs that create more growth and more wealth. It’s a virtuous cycle ... We have a social purpose."


October 28th, 2009

Calpers’ appetite for risk

Posted by: Reuters Staff

Claudia Parsons of Reuters and Calpers Chief Investment Officer Joe Dear discuss the pension fund’s appetite for risk on CNBC, after a Reuters investigation into how Calpers is delving further into alternative investments despite suffering heavy losses.

More on Calpers:

August 18th, 2009

How has the credit crisis affected you?

Posted by: Reuters Staff

The demise of Lehman Brothers a year ago sparked a collapse in financial market confidence and set of a series of reactions that have spread hardship into the four corners of the globe.

Reuters News has charted the key events and their impact in "Times of Crisis" -- a major new multimedia production on Reuters.com. (See it here.)

We'd like to add the experiences of Reuters readers. So, if you or your family have been affected by the events of the past year then use the comments section below to share your story.

May 5th, 2009

Stocks and the City

Posted by: Reuters Staff

The amorous intentions of the British are intimately connected to the performance of the stockmarket, extra-marital dating website illicitencounters.co.uk says.

It notes that although the website has been running since 2004, by far the biggest jump in membership has been in the past 12 months, when it leapt to 310,000 from 180,000 in the previous fiscal year.

“We’re not financial analysts here, but we have noticed a sharp increase in the number of new profiles posted - each time the FTSE moves dramatically, up or down,” says Sarah Hartley, spokesperson for the site.

The site previously reported a surge in membership in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September, “suggesting the credit crunch had made way for the ‘lingering lunch’”.

March 5th, 2009

The wealth effect in reverse

Posted by: Reuters Staff

This chart shows losses in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index since October 2007. Joseph Brusuelas, a director at Moody’s Economy.com, said from the 2007 peak to the first quarter of 2009, U.S. stock holdings fell $7.6 trillion in real terms. “Our estimate suggests that through the end of March, U.S. stock wealth will have fallen by $66,000 per household,” he said.

- Emily Kaiser

February 23rd, 2009

The Dow: A long way down

Posted by: Reuters Staff

U.S. stock indices hit an 11-year low on Feb. 23, as stocks continued their sharp decline from the peak of 2007. This chart looks at some key events that helped to drive stocks down over the last 16 months.

U.S. stock indices hit an 11-year low on Feb. 23, as stocks continued their sharp decline from the peak of 2007. This chart looks at some key events that helped to drive stocks down over the last 16 months. Warning: This may cause post-traumatic flashbacks in some investors.

1 - Oct. 9 2007
U.S. stocks rose to record highs on speculation the Federal Reserve was on course to cut borrowing costs further to revive economic growth. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 120.80 points, or 0.86 percent, to end at 14,164.53, a record.

2 - Oct. 19 2007
Caterpillar Inc.’s warning that the housing slump was infecting the wider economy sent U.S. stocks tumbling by the most in more than two months, in a drop that was made more unnerving as it marked the 20th anniversary of the 1987 market crash.

The Dow fell 366.94 points, or 2.64%, to end at 13,522.02.

3 - Feb. 5, 2008
U.S. stocks suffered their biggest drop in nearly a year after the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index data showed the worst monthly contraction in the services sector since the last U.S. recession and Standard & Poor’s warned it could cut bank credit ratings.

The Dow had its biggest drop since the indicator was created in 1997, down 370.03 points, or 2.93 percent. Settling at 12,265.13, the index was at its lowest level since October 2001, aggravating fears that a recession was at hand.

4 - June 6, 2008
U.S. stocks extended losses as surging oil prices fueled inflation fears, adding to concerns sparked by a government report that showed the unemployment rate had its sharpest rise in 22 years in May.

The Dow fell 3.13 percent to close at 12,209.81

5 - Sept. 29, 2008
Stocks tumbled after the U.S. House of Representatives voted against a compromise bailout plan that would have let the Treasury Department buy toxic assets from struggling banks. House Republicans, in particular, balked at spending so much taxpayer money just before the Nov. 4 U.S. elections.

The Dow fell 6.98 percent to 10,365.45 points.

6 - Oct. 15, 2008
Wall Street had its worst day since the 1987 stock market crash, as bleak economic data fed worries that efforts to unlock credit markets might not stave off a severe recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke added to those concerns when he said the economy faced a “significant threat” from paralyzed credit markets.

The Dow fell 7.87 percent to 8,577.91.

7 - Dec. 1, 2008
U.S. bank stocks suffered their biggest one-day decline in the current financial crisis, on expectations a deepening global economic slump would reduce employment, crimp access to credit and spur more writedowns.

The Dow fell 7.7 pct to 8,149.09

- Chris Sanders

December 18th, 2008

Exit Santa Claus, Enter the Grinch

Posted by: Reuters Staff

Nomura Chief Economist David Resler has made it an annual tradition to write his year-end review and outlook set to the rhythm and rhyme of classic poem “A Visit from St. Nicholas”.

Better known by its first line “T’was the Night Before Christmas”, the 19th century poem is largely responsible for the popular conception of Santa Claus as a jolly, rotund, white-bearded man on a reindeer-pulled sleigh.

In keeping with the prevalent mood, Resler has this year substituted the merry figure of St. Nick with Dr Seuss’ Christmas-ruining, green-skinned Grinch who goes about “brewing up trouble” in the “housing price bubble” by posing as a
home mortgage lender:

Prudence and judgment the Grinch deemed simply passé
Neither income nor job would stand in his loans’ way.
For a Grinch-loan nothing had to be verified.
‘Cause in MBS bundles these risks would he hide.

When agencies scored these loan pools triple-A sound
Investors chased his high yields like fox-hunting hounds.
All this was part of the Grinch’s mean little scheme,
Popping the bubble, he wrecked the home owner’s dream.

Like the Seuss’ picture book, Resler offers us a happy ending to the Grinch-inflicted mayhem.

But that nasty old Grinch shall not our Christmas steal,
We’ll drive him from town or we’ll cut him a deal.
We’ll line up for some help from Tim, Ben and Hank..
We’ll use the might of the Federal Reserve Bank.

New regs for markets will stop all Grinch-like deceivin’
“This,” says Obama, “will be change you can believe-in.”

– By Sebastian Tong

December 12th, 2008

The other side of bank secrecy

Posted by: Reuters Staff

For many, the words bank secrecy and offshore centre tend to raise James Bond-like scenarios of illicit bags of cash smuggled across the border to be locked away in a coded safety box. But often the rich of this world have legitimate reasons to open a protected bank account in Switzerland or other tucked-away offshore locations.
 
Some, like the residents of oil-rich Gulf countries, do not even have worry about the tax man as these nations are largely tax free. “Offshore does not mean that the money is undeclared,” said Jonathan Ivinson, head of tax at international law firm Hogan and Hartson.
 
Despite a global crack-down on money-laundering and tax evasion, bankers say many affluent clients from places like Latin America will continue to keep their money away, safe from a potential coup.  In countries where corruption is rife, people would rather not let their local banker know how much money they earn for fear of kidnapping.
 
“It obviously depends a lot on how worried, how unhappy you are about the jurisdiction you live in,” said Prince Max, the second son of Liechtenstein’s ruling monarch and the head of the
country’s largest bank LGT. ”If you live in a highly volatile and unstable country it is very rational for people to address this risk.”
- Lisa Jucca

December 11th, 2008

Give and take in Switzerland

Posted by: Reuters Staff

Switzerland prides itself for being a reasonably generous country. Each year it gives 1.2 billion Swiss francs, or about 0.4 percent of its gross domestic product, in aid to poorer countries, a higher portion of aid than larger states such as Britain.

But what you get with one hand ….
 
According to estimates by the Berne Declaration, a Swiss non-profit organisation, the poorest nations’ wealthiest have hidden between about 360 billion and 1.5 trillion Swiss francs in Switzerland, away from the taxman. This means that each year, between 5.4 billion and 22 billion Swiss francs are lost to tax authorities in developing countries, equivalent to at least five times what Switzerland gives to those countries in aid.

“Tax dodgers in developed and developing countries deprive governments of revenues,” OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria said last month, adding that if this tax money was collected billions of dollars would available for financing development. (Lisa Jucca)

October 30th, 2008

Is a Democrat sweep better for stocks?

Posted by: Reuters Staff

Investors may be worried about a possible combination of a Barack Obama administration and a Democrat-controlled Congress, but history shows that of the two likely election outcomes, that scenario is better for stocks.

The Democrats look set to maintain control of Congress in the November 4 election and may well expand their grip on the legislative branch. Conventional wisdom is that so-called “gridlock”  — a situation in which neither party can make sweeping policy changes that can upset markets — is best for markets.

Courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group, here are the seven periods when Democrats had complete control and corresponding stock performance:

JFK/LBJ LBJ Carter Clinton
Start Year 1961 1963 1965 1967 1977 1979 1993
President D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D
House D D D D D D D

Index 1961 1963 1965 1967 1977 1979 1993 Average
S&P 500 8.6 34.3 -5.2 29.3 -10.6 41.3 5.4 14.7
Cons Discret. 22.2 70.7 -6.1 111 -10.6 19.7 1.7 29.8
Cons Staples 5.3 21.7 -4.2 42.9 -1.6 -1.8 0.1 8.9
Energy 32.7 44.8 -11.3 33.4 -4.2 117.4 10.7 31.9
Financials 30.2 16 -11.3 38.7 -19.6 16.9 0.9 10.3
Health Care -1.4 33.4 27.5 29.3 -3.4 33 -1.9 16.7
Industrials 7.3 35.8 -4.9 32.6 -10.3 44.1 10.3 16.4
Materials 12.8 34.1 -29.4 15.4 -30.2 19.9 14.2 5.3
Technology -2.2 30.8 40.3 72 6.9 -1.1 43.5 27.2
Telecom Svcs 9.2 19.3 -16.4 -1.6 -5.1 -19.8 1.5 -1.8
Transports 7.8 45.6 -1.2 33.8 -12.9 92.7 0.4 23.8
Utilities 29.2 20.1 -12.2 0.7 -9.4 16.5 -10.7 4.9

And here are the eight periods when a Republican was President and Democrats controlled the Senate and House:

Nixon Nixon/Ford Reagan Bush I Bush II
Start Year 1969 1971 1973 1975 1987 1989 1991 2007
President R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D
House D D D D D D D D

1969 1971 1973 1975 1987 1989 1991 2007 Average
S&P 500 -11.3 28.1 -41.9 56.7 14.7 18.9 31.9 -37.8 7.4
Cons Discret. -8.4 27.6 -65 115.2 9.7 10.2 62.4 -48.9 12.9
Cons Staples 13.8 37.7 -43.8 48.3 39.4 68.4 42.6 -11.6 24.3
Energy -18.6 16.8 -24.6 55.1 21 28.8 0 -23.7 6.9
Financials -5.7 34.8 -29.1 18.1 -13.2 -7.3 72.2 -61.9 1
Health Care 16 52.7 -26.4 -4.3 22.4 67.5 23 -23.3 16
Industrials -10.7 30.7 -42 56.2 19 10.7 34.5 -37.6 7.6
Materials -19.1 38.1 -25.9 52.5 17.1 3.9 30.3 -35.8 7.6
Technology -4.4 33.3 -50.1 55 2.4 -13 7.2 -33.9 -0.4
Telecom Svcs -9.8 7 -20.8 46.4 13.1 26 19.8 -38.5 5.4
Transports -36.8 32.4 -36.9 65.2 20.2 -6.1 59.2 -23.2 9.3
Utilities -11.2 -1.9 -42.5 57.6 -9.6 16.5 16.4 -25.7 0

More data and research are available at Bespoke Investment Group.

Click here for more from Reuters reporter Kristina Cooke.

What do you think the best combination would be for the stock market? Leave your answer in the comments section.