Lehman shares closed Tuesday near their lowest in five years. Since the year began, Lehman investors have lost more than $17.7 billion.

Lehman shares have dropped to just above $30, and Wall Street analysts have scaled back their expectations for the stock. Nevertheless, the average analysts’ target price assumes the stock will rebound as much as 85 percent, according to Reuters Estimates.

Wall Street remains decidedly bullish on Lehman shares, despite its drop to near a five-year low and reports it needs to raise capital.

Credit default swaps, which rise as investors lose confidence in companies’ financial condition, have climbed sharply of late, spurred in part by concern Lehman Brothers and other investment banks may need to raise additional capital, according to CDS dealers.

As a rule, women are more pessimistic than men. The pattern has been among the most consistent across years of tracking U.S. consumer sentiment in the Reuters/University of Michigan survey. Since the survey began tracking gender differences in outlook in January 1978, women have shown a higher sentiment reading just twice.

Things changed this month.

The long-term trend continued in May as overall consumer sentiment dropped to a 28-year low. Yet the mood among women improved slightly whereas sentiment for men soured for a fourth consecutive month, dropping to the lowest since 1980 (second graphic above). Moods darkened for men by the biggest margin in nearly three years, since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

What’s behind it? One factor at play is a diverging view of personal financial situations. Women in the survey indicated their situations improved modestly this month from April, albeit from a 27-year low. For men, however, May marked the seventh straight month of worsening finances. In fact, men rated their finances in the worst shape since the survey began tracking the differences between the genders.

Are high gas prices killing Americans’ love affair with gas-guzzling SUVs? Looks that way.

In April, SUVs and light trucks took their smallest share of total U.S. vehicle sales in nearly nine years, and dealers sold more new cars than trucks for the second month running — the first time that’s happened since 2001. While many factors have teamed up to torpedo sales of high-ticket vehicles like SUVs — tighter credit, a tough job market, slumping real estate values and a generally soft economy — the fact that pump prices have soared to a record aren’t helping, as the chart shows.

This trend might not easily reverse in May. Gas prices are up an average of 3 percent in the first two weeks of the month, with the latest weekly average pump price setting a fresh record of $3.72 a gallon, according to the Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration.

Been paying more at the pump lately? Not to worry. It’s just a figment of your imagination, new government data shows.

The U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that gasoline prices fell last month by 2 percent. This was the very same month when crude oil prices surged 11.7 percent and there was NO pass through at the pump? Hmmmm.

Meanwhile, another branch of the very same U.S. government, the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration, contends average retail gas prices actually shot up 9.5 percent in April from March. Whoa!

Why the discrepancy?

It’s the magic of so-called “seasonal adjustments” — a practice employed by economists and other statisticians to smoothe out volatile month-to-month changes and give a supposedly clearer picture of the underlying trend within the numbers.

A look at the non-seasonally adjusted data from the BLS is closer to reflecting reality: It shows gas prices rose 5.6 percent last month.

Better, but that still understates the increase recorded by the EIA by 41 percent. Makes you wonder where the BLS buys its gas.

The S&P 500 snapped a five-month losing streak in April with its best showing in more than four years, gaining 4.75 percent on the month. Some see that as a sign of a turnaround for stocks, which appear to be near their cheapest in over a dozen years.

A closer look at stock valuations, though, indicates U.S. equities might not be such bargains.

Sure, the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P remains around 14 times forward earnings estimates, near its lowest level since 1995. On the surface, it suggests stocks are a deal at current prices.

Here's the hitch: the S&P's P/E rose 5.14 percent last month, the biggest monthly jump in valuations in more than five years, yet at an 8 percent faster pace than the rise in the index. Stocks got pricier faster than stock prices rose. That's because the "E" in the P/E -- forecast company earnings -- continues to slide as analysts factor in such headwinds as the credit crisis and probable recession. That's rarely a good omen for equity fundamentals.

In fact, over the past two months, stocks have grown 6.8 percent pricier, while stock prices are up just 4.1 percent. The last time valuations grew so quickly relative to prices was in late 2001, when the S&P staged what turned out to be a 3-month bear-market rally. By January 2002, stocks were back on their way down and would tumble another 33 percent before hitting bottom 10 months later.

The latest data on new home sales paints another grim picture of the U.S. real estate market. The pace of sales of new single family homes and condos fell to its slowest in 16-1/2 years in March. Inventory of unsold homes would take 11 months to work off at the current rate -- that's the biggest inventory glut in nearly 27 years.

Yet that seemingly ugly situation could be a signal that the worst is over for the new home market. Only twice previously in the history of the new homes sales data series has the months' supply reading hit 11 months or higher -- April 1980 and September 1981. Both those occasions marked a turning point for the market: Inventories of unsold homes plummeted as the sales pace soon improved.

(Ed's note: This post was edited to alter an editor's headline to stress that one reading of the data suggests the worst 'may be' over in the housing slump, instead of one lonely signal that the worst 'is' over.)

The most powerful government bond market rally in years is showing signs of petering out. Investors appear increasingly reluctant to pay up for pricey Treasuries and they're showing a nascent appetite for risk. The turnaround remains in the early stages and could quickly reverse itself, yet even now some significant pain is being felt among bond mavens.

U.S. Treasuries hit their high-water mark on March 17, the day before the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut, with yields on two-year Treasury notes ending at 1.33 percent, their lowest since July 2003. The Fed's 75-basis-point reduction the next day disappointed many bond investors, especially those hunkered down at the front end of the yield curve where Fed policy expectations are paramount.

Up to that point, the JPMorgan government bond index had notched a total return of more than 15 percent since mid-June 2007, when worries about the subprime mortgage market collapse set the Treasuries market on fire. The net total return on the benchmark S&P 500 over the same run? Negative 14 percent.

Since March 17, though, bonds are broadly lower and stocks are up 7.6 percent. JPMorgan's index of shorter-dated Treasuries, with durations from one to three years, has fallen 0.88 percent over the past three weeks. At a glance that may not seem a horrific performance. Nonetheless, that is the index's worst slump over a similar stretch in four years. The last time it fared so poorly in such a short time? Spring 2004, when bonds sold off just before the Fed embarked on a two-year rate-hiking campaign.

A basket of stocks meant to send the first smoke signals of broader recovery is on a tear. Will the broader market follow?

The Merrill Lynch early cycle index, made up of auto makers, home builders, retailers and building materials companies, is up 6.8 percent this week and 7.25 percent so far this year. To compare, the benchmark S&P 500 is off 6.5 percent in 2008. (All of the XE components are in the S&P 500). Within the XE, there have have been big comebacks in home builders - Pulte Homes

1: Dec 14, 2006
Bear Stearns posts record earnings, touting huge profit gains from then-booming businesses advising on mergers and arranging credit derivatives, distressed debt and leveraged finance deals.

Bear stock closes at $159.96. The average price target from Wall Street research analysts covering the stock is $166.24 according to Reuters Estimates.

2: Jan 12, 2007
Bear shares close at a record $171.51 on momentum from its strong earnings report the previous month. The average price target: $174.

3: May 24, 2007
Bear shares close at $147.55, a six-week low, after Goldman Sachs slashed its quarterly earnings target for its rival investment bank, citing concern about Bear's heavy exposure to the mortgage securitization business. The average price target: $181.73.

4: June 14, 15 & 16, 2007
On June 14, Bear reports earnings declined for the first time in four quarters on weaker results from its mortgage securities business. On the 15th, the Wall Street Journal reports a hedge fund run by Bear has suffered big losses on soured subprime mortgage investments. (A second fund with similar troubles would soon emerge.) The next day, the 15th, the Journal reports that Merrill Lynch, a creditor to the fund, seized some of its assets. The stock closes at $150.09 on the 15th, a Friday. The average target price: $181.

5: July 17, 2007
As losses from subprime mortgages begin to begin to threaten credit markets around the world, Bear Stearns informs investors in its two struggling hedge funds that the funds have "very little value" remaining. Bear shares end the day at $139.91. The average target price: $178.23.

6: Aug 5, 2007
Warren Spector resigns under pressure as co-president and co-chief operating officer, having lost the confidence of long-time CEO James Cayne for his handling of the subprime mortgage crisis. The stock closes at $113.81 on Aug 6, a Monday. The average target price: $164.29.

7: Oct 5, 2007
Prosecutors launch a criminal probe into the collapse of the two Bear Stearns hedge funds. The stock closes at $131.58. The average target price $144.17.

8: Dec 20, 2007
Bear reports its first-ever quarterly loss, driven by $1.9 billion of bad debt write downs. It also says executives will not receive annual bonuses. Bear shares close at $91.42. The average target price: $121.67.

9: Jan 8, 2008
James Cayne is replaced as CEO by investment banker Alan Schwartz. The stock closes at $71.01. The average target price; $111.36.

10: March 12, 2008
Responding to market rumors of a cash crunch at the bank, Bear CEO Schwartz goes on CNBC television and assures viewers that the firm has ample liquidity. The stock closes at $61.58. The average target price: $98.87.

11: March 14, 2008
JPMorgan, backed by the Federal Reserve, provides an undisclosed amount of emergency financing to Bear Stearns. Bear says its liquidity position had deteriorated dramatically in the previous 24 hours. The stock plunges to close at $30.85. The average target price: $93.62.

12: March 16 & 17, 2008
JPMorgan agrees on March 16 to buy Bear for $236 million, or $2 a share, representing just over 1 percent of the firm's value at its record high close just 14 months earlier. The deal essentially marks the end of Bear's 85-year run as an independent securities firm. Bear shares end March 17, a Monday, at $4.81 on optimism another buyer may emerge. The average target price: $2.

Wednesday's $5 surge in the price of oil was the largest one-day increase ever for crude, according to Reuters EcoWin data, and it stands as just the latest example of the big price swings that have gripped the energy complex since oil overtook the $100 a barrel mark.

At its peak Wednesday, when the front-month Nymex contract traded at $104.95, the gain on the day briefly was $5.43 -- also the biggest move ever to an intraday high from the previous day's closing level.

But look at a more telling gauge of oil market volatility -- daily percentage move, which provides the magnitude of a price move relative to current market levels. A close read on that data suggests the market today is actually far more calm than it was one decade ago -- or even two -- when crude was trading below $20 a barrel, more than 80 percent cheaper than today.

On average over the past 20 days, oil has swung from the previous day's close in a range from up 1.9 percent to down 1.2 percent. A longer horizon, looking back over the past 50 trading days, shows the range to have been from up 1.5 percent to down 1.4 percent.

But rewind about 10 years to mid-1998 and you'll find that the 20-day average daily range was from up about 3.7 percent to down 2.7 percent, and the 50-day moving average percentage swing was from up 2.6 percent to down 2.1 percent. Of course, the price then? Less than $14 a barrel.