Ok, it’s a big policy week and of course it could either way for markets. An awful lot of ECB and Fed easing expectations may well be in the price already, so some delivery would appear to be important especially now that ECB chief Mario Draghi has set everyone up for fireworks in Frankfurt.
Half of India’s 1.2 billion people have been without power today, bringing transport, factories and offices to a grinding halt for the second day in a row and sparking rage amongst the sweltering population. That’s embarrassing enough for a country that prides itself as a member of the BRIC quartet of big emerging powerhouses along with Brazil, Russia and China. But the outages will also hit economic growth which is already at 10-year lows. And the power failures, highlighting India’s woeful infrastructure, bode poorly for the government’s plans to step up manufacturing and lure more foreign companies to the factory sector.
So India has not joined emerging central banks’ rate-cutting spree . After recent rate cuts in Brazil, South Korea, South Africa, Philippines and Colombia, and others signalling their worries over the state of economic growth, hawks are in short supply among the world’s increasingly dovish central banks. But the Reserve Bank of India is one.
Japanese mom-and-pop investors’ penchant for seeking high-yield investments overseas is well known. Mrs Watanabe (as the canny player of currency and exchange rate arbitrage has come to be known) invests billions of yen overseas every year via so-called uridashi bonds, debt denominated in currencies with high yields. Data shows the lira has suddenly become the red-hot favourite with uridashi investors this year.
Guarantees on emerging market debt need to be silver-plated these days after the defaults of Ukraine’s state energy firm Naftogaz and Kazakhstan’s BTA bank in recent years show implied guarantees are not worth the paper that they weren’t even written on.
Simon Wong is partner at investment firm Governance for Owners, adjunct professor of law at Northwestern University School of Law, and visiting fellow at the London School of Economics. He can be found on Twitter at @SimonCYWong. The opinions expressed reflect his personal views only.
Another central bank has caved in and cut interest rates — South Africa lowered its key rate to a record low of 5 percent at Thursday’s meeting. In doing so, the central bank noted growth was slowing further. “Negative spillover effects (from the global economy) likely to intensify,” it said.