Global Investing

More development = fewer violent deaths in India

March 4, 2014

A recent report highlights the importance of economic development for India and indeed for all developing countries. It also shows why we should worry about the slow pace of reform in India and how that has hit growth rates.

Will Lithuania fly like a hawk or a dove at the ECB?

February 20, 2014

No one will really know how Lithuania will impact European Central Bank monetary policy until the country gets a seat at the table. That is expected to happen in 2015, provided the last of the three Baltic nations meets the criteria to become the euro zone’s 19th member. We’ll all find out in early June.

Emerging markets coming off the turbulent boil?

February 11, 2014

Is it all over? Is the emerging market turmoil no longer a concern among investors, economists and academics? Measured at least in the last week, the market is recovering some lost ground. Maybe  January’s sell-off was enough and in the last week all boats seem to be rising once again. After all, there’s a new Fed Chair in Janet Yellen who has now officially taken over and the likelihood of easy monetary policy, tapering of asset purchases notwithstanding, isn’t expected to change.

Reforms changing the yin-yang of investing in China? – PODCAST

February 6, 2014

China’s influence on emerging markets, let alone the global economy, cannot be understated. Great strides have been made to build the economy over the past 30 years, but not without its casualties. In a conversation with Michelle Gibley, director of international research at Charles Schwab, I asked her about a new research paper she’s published on why, amid the angst and doubt on emerging markets, she has shifted her views. She’s turned positive on Chinese large-cap stocks and says the China of the past was running out of gas.

It’s not end of the world at the Fragile Five

February 5, 2014

Despite all the doom and gloom surrounding capital-hungry Fragile Five countries, real money managers have not abandoned the ship at all.

“Dog-Eared” debt and the IMF’s sovereign restructuring ideas

January 31, 2014

Since April of last year, a small but growing cadre of lawyers, investors, regulators, and yes, even journalists, have been carrying around dog-eared copies of an International Monetary Fund paper (read: trial balloon) that revisits how the fund, the lender of last resort for many nations, might revamp its approach to sovereign debt restructurings.

In Chile, what’s good for stocks will be good for bonds

January 17, 2014

 

Felipe Larrain, Chile’s finance minister is facing a new job come March when incoming center-left government of President-elect Michelle Bachelet takes over. An academic by profession, he intends to either make his way back into the cloistered lecture halls of a university, not necessarily in Chile, or work for some kind of international organization that is outside of the corporate or financial world.

Surprise winner in frontier debt last year

January 10, 2014

Which was the best performer in emerging bond markets last year?  The sector had a pretty torrid year overall, with sovereign dollar bonds finishing 2013 almost 7 percent in the red. But there were exceptions.

A guide to North Korean “elections” – due in March

January 9, 2014

Investors are bracing themselves this year for elections in all of “Fragile Five” countries and a number of other emerging nations that are adding political concerns to those economies already vulnerable to capital flight risks.

Market cap of EM debt indices still rising

January 8, 2014

It wasn’t a good year for emerging market bonds, with all three main debt benchmarks posting negative returns for the first time since 2008. But the benchmark indices run by JPMorgan nevertheless saw a modest increase in market capitalisation, and assets of the funds that benchmark to these indices also rose.