Time was when investing in emerging markets meant buying dollar bonds issued by developing countries’ governments.
How old fashioned. These days it’s more about emerging corporate bonds, if the emerging market gurus at JP Morgan are to be believed. According to them, the stock of debt from emerging market companies now exceeds that of dollar bonds issued by emerging governments for the first time ever.
JP Morgan, which runs the most widely used emerging debt indices, says its main EM corporate bond benchmark, the CEMBI Broad, now lists $469 billion in corporate bonds. That compares to $463 billion benchmarked to its main sovereign dollar bond index, the EMBI Global. In fact, the entire corporate debt market (if one also considers debt that is not eligible for the CEMBI) is now worth $974 billion, very close to the magic $1 trillion mark. Back in 2006, the figure was at$340 billion. JPM says:
The international primary market for EM has transformed into a corporate debt market, with sovereign issuance now less than one-third of total EM external issuance.
JP Morgan expects the $1 trillion milestone to be hit by year-end, when the total stock of sovereign dollar bonds will stand at $700 billion.