Global Investing

Weekly Radar: Managing expectations

January 24, 2013

With a week to go in January, global stock markets are up 3.8 percent – gently nudging higher after the new year burst and with a continued evaporation of volatility gauges toward new 5-year lows. That’s all warranted by a reappraisal of the global economy as well as murmurs about longer-term strategic shifts back to under-owned and cheaper equities. But, as ever, you can never draw a straight line. If we were to get this sort of move every month this year, then total returns for the year on the MCSI global index would be 50 percent – not impossible I guess, but highly unlikely. So, at some stage the market will pause, hestitate or even take a step back. Is now the time just three weeks into the year?

Weekly Radar: Global PMIs; US/UK GDP; FOMC; Heavy earnings, inc Apple

October 18, 2012

Whoosh! The gloomy start to the final quarter seems to have been swept away again by the beginnings of a half decent earnings season stateside – at least against the backdrop of dire expectations – and a steady drip feed of economic data surprises from the United States and elsewhere. Moody’s not downgrading Spain to junk has helped enormously and the betting is now that the latter will now seek and get a precautionary credit line, which would not require any bailout monies up front but still unleash the ECB on its bonds should they ever even need to – and,  given Thursday’s successful sale of 4.6 billion euros of 3-, 5- and 10-year Spanish government bonds,  they clearly don’t at the moment (almost 90% of Spain’s  original 2012 borrowing target has now been raised). What’s more, Greek euro exit forecasts have been put back or reduced meantime by big euro zone debt bears such as Citi and others, again helping ease tensions and defuse perceived near-term euro tail risks. Obama’s bounceback in the presidential polls after the latest debate may be helping too by rolling back speculation that a clean sweep rather than a more likely gridlock was a possible outcome from Nov 6 polls. China Q3 GDP came in as expected with a marginal slowdown to 7.4% and signs of growth troughing — all adding to the picture of relative calm.

Three snapshots for Friday

March 30, 2012

The correlation between individual country equity indices is rising again:

U.S. consumer spending jumps in February but income growth tepid.

Apple vs. RIM market value:

Three snapshots for Friday

March 16, 2012

One Apple chart that has been going down for 10 years is its forward P/E ratio:

Rising gasoline prices push up American’s inflation expectations for the next year:

from MacroScope:

The iPod – the iCon of Chinese capitalism

June 7, 2011

Walking past Apple's sleek shop along London's Regent Street on Sunday, my wife asked me what I wanted for Father's Day.

Who’s next for the Dow?

March 9, 2009

Arzu Cevik, director at Thomson Reuters Strategic Research, writes:

“With Citi shares trading below $1, the first time since 1970 that a “penny stock” traded on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it is widely expected that it will be removed from the index.

One Minute Manager

February 5, 2009

One minute, one manager. An occasional word about what to expect from the economy and financial markets. Today is Giles Keating, global head of research at Credit Suisse Private Bank.

Is there a gadget to avoid recession?

August 11, 2008

apple.jpgSome investors reckon the U.S. economy is in recession and undergoing a W-shaped pattern of growth — that is decline, temporary recovery, decline again, then rebound.