By Stephen Eisenhammer
Over the past few years we’ve become used to the global economy resting on a knife-edge. So when dramatic events like the levy on bank deposits in Cyprus happen we wait for the dominoes to fall. Two days on we’re still waiting…
The recovery in the euro zone, so vital to Europe’s emerging markets, is undoubtedly fragile but the incident in Cyprus doesn’t seem to be enough to knock it all down now that the European Central Bank seems willing to step in if borrowing rates go to high.
Overall, this should not be read as a game-changer for the global markets but more as background noise creating indeed some volatility, on top of the uncertainty created after the Italian elections - Societe Generale.
Cyprus is unique due to the size of the economy (the bail-out is 56 percent of the country’s GDP) and the role of the country as an off-shore tax haven, according to Societe Generale.
The major question mark hangs over Russia, however. The majority of large depositors in Cypriot banks are Russian companies, banks and individuals. Moscow’s blue chip RTS stock index subsequently lost 3 percent as markets opened after the announcement. But falls have been minimal since and the index is largely flat on Tuesday.