Five things to think about this week:

REBOUND
- The global stock market has lost some of its spring, although it still managed a seventh straight  week of gains last week. A serious pullback has yet to be seen and the VIX is managing to hold fairly close to the sub-40 lows. Faced with a deluge of earnings, investors are picking their way through a mass of mixed earnings news and forecasts and displaying a more symmetric reaction to good/bad news than in past months.

STRESSES
- The U.S. financial stress testing timeline will put the focus back on the health of financials. Results, which are expected to point out banks’ varying ability to cope with a severe recession, are due out on May 4 and the financial industry is already flagging the risks of failing to spell out what would happen to the weaker links in the chain. Stress test results and any rumours or leaks before publication could prompt volatility.

DATA FLOW
- The release of advance Q1 U.S. GDP will offer investors a clearer sense of whether worst is in the past and could point way to what might feed any eventual “green shoots” of recovery. In the euro zone, national and regional sentiment indicators will point the way to firms’ and consumers’ mood at the start of Q2.

MONETARY POLICY
- Central bank meetings will be held in the U.S., Japan, and New Zealand. RBNZ is the only one of three with room to cut rates and there is some speculation that a more aggressive gesture could be on the cards to rein in markets, which are pricing in New Zealand rate hikes for next year. With the ECB due to outline any “unconventional” policy steps it might take on May 7, investors will scrutinise ECB officials’ comments for insight on what the consensus is building around.

FISCAL SPILLOVERS
- Fiscal stimulus in China looks to be filtering through to the real economy rather faster than in the developed world, prompting banks to upgrading China growth forecasts and investors to assess whether there will be a knock-on beneficial effect for commodity-producing emerging markets, which had suffered disproportionately due to the slump in global demand. Such a spillover effect is expected to especially benefit the Russian and Brazilian markets which have already rebounded.

(Reuter photo: Fayaz Kabli)

Trying to second guess reaction to news during this financial crisis has been a fraught exercise and the U.S. Treasury may have a few advisers playing game theory to assess the impact of results from bank stress tests.

The tests are an attempt to determine which banks can survive more trouble, and who can’t. And how big any balance sheet holes might be. The results are due out on May 4.

If the results look too good, the process will look like a whitewash. Too negative, and it will destabilise still-jumpy markets. Yet showing up problems at one or a few banks could hang them out to dry.

The plan may have been to keep results secret, but that’s unrealistic. Shares in Britain’s Barclays soared last month when its regulator gave it an all-clear. That boosted all the UK sector, but then Barclays was almost alone in the spotlight — its rivals had either already been bailed out or had comfortable capital positions.

In the U.S., there are 19 banks to handle. It could be a PR nightmare and maybe one policymakers should have seen coming. Tim Geithner may end up on the back foot, just as he tried to get ahead of the crisis.

Or he may just opt to play hardball with the weaker banks. At least a transparent process will remove uncertainty from the stronger names.

Five things to think about this week:

EARNINGS DELUGE
– A heavy U.S. earnings week looms and the European reporting calendar is picking up. While more banks and financials will be reporting (e.g. Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Credit Suisse and a trading update due from Barclays), results will start flowing from a wider range of sectors in both the U.S. and Europe (ranging from Apple and IBM to Glaxo SmithKline, Du Pont, Coca Cola). Health of the broader economy on display.

MACRO SIGNALS
– The more mixed signals that earnings send, the more investors are likely to look to macro and other indicators as a cross-check of whether the stock market rebound is sustainable and whether the economy is anywhere near an inflexion point. Flash PMIs and Ifo for April will give an early indication of how economic activity was faring as Q2 got underway. Trade data from Japan is also due for release.

FISCAL HELP
 – The UK budget on April 22 is expected to issue grim forecasts and extend a helping hand to some sectors, such as autos. The fiscal presentation will keep the spotlight on the limited room for budgetary manoeuvre in Britain and elsewhere with past bailouts and support measures leaving tough decisions to be made on public spending, taxes, etc.

G7-IMF
– The G7 finance ministers’ meeting in Washington comes soon after G20 earlier this month and therefore is unlikely to pull any rabbits out of hats. Moreover, there appears to be a less obvious need to spotlight FX given subsiding implied vols for major FX rates and the U.S. Treasury statement that China is not manipulating FX. Markets are looking for followthrough on G20 pledges.

EMERGING OPPORTUNITY
 – Emerging markets have proved resilient in the earnings season, withstanding occasional down days on major indices and most recently drawing support from nascent signs that the Chinese economy has put its worst quarter behind it. Investors’ willingness to look anew at the safer parts of the emerging universe is prompting some sovereigns to use this window of opportunity to launch eurobonds or look into doing so.

Five things to think about this week:

-- IS RATE OF ECONOMIC CONTRACTION SLOWING?
Some economic reports have been pointing to a slowdown in the pace at which economic conditions are deteriorating -- eg U.S. home sales data; auto sales data; PMIs; UK lenders seeing improved credit availability in Q2, and PMI data. While job destruction is continuing apace, signs that inventories are being drawn down leave room for hope for those inclined to look for the silver lining, or even seek a bottom to the current downturn.

-- REBOUND MOMENTUM
Investors are wondering whether equity markets can extend a solid Q2 start now that major fiscal stimulus announcements, rate cuts, QE  (in most developed economies), the London G20 meeting, and other big milestones are largely behind them. A sustained narrowing of corporate spreads, the VIX clearly breaking out of ranges that have held post-Lehman, and any shift out of defensive stocks are just some of the signals that would suggest that the rebound has legs.

-- QE CLUB
The European Central Bank opted to wait another month before deciding on whether to join the QE club and unexpectedly left itself room for a further refi cut. By contrast, curveballs are unlikely from Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meetings given their quantitative easings are under way. The relative performance of their respective sovereign debt markets is in focus as a result, as are the inflation outlooks being priced in by index-linked paper at a time when some are pondering the longer-term fallout of QE policy. The Reserve Bank of Ausstralia also meets this week week but markets finding it tough to call the outcome.

-- EMERGING
The MSCI emerging market index's year-to-date performance is in positive territory and investors' willingness to venture further into these waters could rise given the International Monetary Fund is ready for new business with a hefty increase in resources and has found its first client for the new credit line that doesn't impose conditionality for those strong economic track records. Just knowing such a backstop is there could foster confidence in well-run emerging economies and see their outperformance against less well-thought-of peers become even more pronounced.

-- FIXING BANK BALANCE SHEETS
A drive to improve health of financial sector balance sheets is being pursued at regulatory/industry/firm levels. M&A activity, rights issues, and bond buybacks or exchanges are being deployed to improve health of bank capital. Relaxation of mark-to-market rules in the U.S. is expected to flatter Q1 earnings results -- and has already helped U.S. financials. Interest in how many U.S. banks plump for the option given not all European banks moved away from market-to-market rules when given the choice in 2008. Stock markets look more inclined to hope for a break in financial sector gloom.

Japan, slightly sidelined by the U.S.-UK "special" relationship and the Franco-German alliance at the G20 summit, is keen to stress the country can offer lessons to be learned from the country's banking crisis in the 1990s.

Here's a re-cap of what happened. In 1992, then-PM Miyazawa warned of a financial crisis unless banks were recapitalised using public funds now. Yet no action was taken. Between 1995 and 1997, staggering 5 financial institutions failed, forcing the government to inject public funds into 21 banks in 1998. Then two major banks were nationalised, then the government injected additional capital into 32 banks.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner experienced the crisis himself as a financial attache at the U.S. embassy in Tokyo in the 1990s.

But how relevant are Japanese lessons to the global markets today?

"In some ways, Japan was lucky. Its lost decade was spent at a time when the global economy was recovering from recession. As a result, there was an opportunity for exports to grow," Ian Bright, ING economist, writes in a paper which won the Society of Business Economists' Rybczynski Prize.

"Today, the situation is different. The problems in financial markets are global rather than local. As a result, the chances of any one country finding solace in exports are slim."

(Reuters photo: Toru Hanai)

Some more bits and bobs to capture the current mood among investors.

–  So far, 2009 is worse than 2008 for stock investors. MSCI’s main world index is down around 17 percent in January and February.  A year ago, it had lost around 8 percent.

– Eastern and central Europe are the new worries because of bank exposure to troubled economies.  ”The travails in the east, like the vampires of folklore, are sucking the lifeblood from European markets and investor sentiment,” State Street suggests.

– Cross-border flows into the euro zone hit record lows in February,  the same firm says.

– Denmark and Sweden join the gloomy gang. Year-on-year Swedish GDP lost 4.9 percent in Q4 2008 and Denmark’s was down 3.9 percent.

– We have just had the worst month ever for global corporate earnings revisions, according to Societe Generale number maestro Andrew Lapthorne. “Earnings estimates for 2009 saw a 14 percent cut last month, a rate of downgrades twice that seen during the worst moments of the early 1990s recession,” he says.

Attention Wall Street whistleblowers: your banking job might be at risk, but here’s your shot at Hollywood stardom.

The Academy Award-winning filmmaker is looking for “brave” financial industry insiders to help him make his next film which will focus on the financial crisis – or what Moore calls “the biggest swindle in American history.”

“Based on those who have already contacted me, I believe there are a number of you who know “the real deal” about the abuses that have been happening. You have information that the American people need to hear, “ Moore said on his website.

He called on those working for banks, brokerage firms or insurance companies to “participate in the telling the greatest crime story ever told” by contacting him.

The director, who took on the gun lobby in Bowling for Columbine in 2002, the Bush administration in his controversial 2004 documentary Fahrenheit 9/11 and the U.S. healthcare system in his 2007 polemic Sicko, pledged to protect the identities of those who step forward.

Moore says the unnamed film – currently in production – will shed light on the “abuses” that have led to crisis, which has claimed Wall Street giants Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns and prompted a government bailout worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

“I just can’t say much right now. I’m sure you can understand why. One thing I can tell you is that you’re gonna like this movie when I’m done with it,” he says.

– By Sebastian Tong

Bank executives beware. Turn your microphones off during what are likely to be stormy shareholder meetings this year.

Insults are likely to fly at many bank AGMs this year from shareholders angry at their board for losing billions, sending shares crashing, making ill-advised purchases or for their role in the global economic crisis. Bankers are unpopular after more than a year of grim news.

But an unnamed director at Santander lacked humility this week.  After heated questions from the floor about the Spanish bank’s purchase of U.S. lender Sovereign and its exposure to the alleged Bernie Madoff fraud, some shareholders applauded a critical comment.

“Bastards. Listen to them clapping,” the director was heard saying after his mic was left on.

It rekindled memories of Jeffrey Skilling, the disgraced head of Enron who once called a critical analyst an “asshole” in an earnings conference call. But shareholder meetings are often stormy in Spain, and there has been little backlash, whereas in Britain and elsewhere the latest comment could have prompted a bigger furore and a hunt for the culprit.

But it serves as a reminder to executives to put their hard hats on when they meet shareholders this year.

It’s the poorest country in Europe and its main export is alcohol but it can still beat the world’s largest economy when it comes to financial muscle. Yes you’ve guessed it, Moldova trumps the United States in the Banker magazine’s 2009 World Financial Health Index.

Caution is the watchword of the magazine’s latest index, which is careful not to reward financial risk-taking. According to the Banker’s new model, Moldova, Chile, Bolivia and Peru are less likely to be affected by the global financial storm than the U.S., UK or Japan.

Small is beautiful when it comes to debts and that’s where Moldova wins. Its debt is $763 per capita, compared with the UK’s $171,000. Its banks have only extended loans worth 35 percent of GDP, while in the mighty U.S., the figure’s 230 percent.

Moldova pays 2.8 percent of public sector revenues to service government debt, compared with Italy which spends 11.9 percent on interest payments.

The rule of thumb may be that if your economy has never been fully developed, it has far less potential to crash.

If there’s one thing you don’t want to be, it’s the next Iceland.

Since its currency, colossally indebted banking sector and economy collapsed in spectacular fashion in October, the country has become a byword for an economy that has truly hit the rocks.

Within weeks, banking problems and currency falls meant Hungary was being hyped as a “second Iceland”, at least until a joint International Monetary Fund and European Union rescue package restored some stability.

Next to win the unwanted comparison was Ukraine.  Having lost at one stage half its value, the currency has somewhat stabilised — although most foreign investors are very hesitant to hold Ukrainian assets again.  And like Iceland itself, Ukraine is now dependent on an IMF lifeline.

Now, it is Britain in the limelight.  The New York Times as well as Britain’s Observer and Daily Telegraph newspapers have all made the comparison in recent days.

For people earning and saving in sterling, it is an uncomfortable place to be and nervousness is to be found in the strangest of places.  During a recent visit to a podiatrist, a Reuters correspondent found the conversation punctuated with speculation about the possibility of an IMF bailout for Britain and angst over cutbacks in the National Health Service footcare budget.