Global Investing

Emerging bond defaults on the rise, no surprise

May 1, 2012

As may be expected, the crisis has increased the risk of default by emerging market borrowers. According to estimates by ING Bank’s emerging bond guru David Spegel, the default rate on EM bonds is running at over $6 billion in the first four months of 2012, already surpassing the 2011 total of $4.3 billion. He  predicts another $1.3 billion of emerging defaults to come this year.

Three snapshots for Thursday

April 26, 2012

Weaker than expected economic data has pushed Citigroup’s G10 surprise indicator into negative territory. The indicator has tracked closely with the relative performance of equities vs bonds:

Hungary can seek IMF aid now. But can it cut rates?

April 25, 2012

The European Union has given Budapest the green light to seek aid from the IMF. (see here)  In fact, the breakthrough after five months of dispute does not let Hungary completely off the hook  — to get its hands on the money, Viktor Orban’s government will have to backtack on some controversial recent legislation, starting with its efforts to curb the central bank’s independence.  It remains to be seen if Orban will actually cave in.

The “least worst” option?

April 24, 2012

Western governments saddled with mountainous debts will “repress” creditors and savers via banking regulation, capital controls, central bank bond buying and currency depreciation that effectively puts sovereign borrowers at the top of the credit queue while simultaneously wiping out real returns for their bond holders. So says HSBC chief economist Stephen King in his latest report this week called “From Depression to repression”.

Ukraine’s $58 billion problem

April 24, 2012

Ukrainian officials were at pains to reassure investors last week that no debt default was in the offing. But people familiar with the numbers will find it hard to believe them.

from MacroScope:

Foreign investors still buying American

April 17, 2012

Overseas investors have yet to sour towards U.S. assets despite high government debt levels, according the latest figures on capital flows.

Three snapshots for Wednesday

April 4, 2012

Markets starting to worry about an end to QE/LTRO liquidity?

 

Forward looking PMI data is starting to show a divergence between the UK and the euro zone:

Asian bonds may suffer most if QE on ice

April 3, 2012

Bonds issued in emerging market currencies have been red-hot favourites with investors this year, garnering returns of 8.3 percent so far in 2012. But for some the happy days are drawing to a close — U.S. Treasury yields are nudging higher as the U.S. recovery gains a foothold and the Fed holds back from more money printing for now at least. That could spell trouble for emerging markets across the board (here’s something I wrote on this subject recently) but, according to JP Morgan, it is Asian bond markets that may bear the brunt.

Three snapshots for Tuesday

March 27, 2012

Is now the time to shift to equities vs. bonds? Goldman Sachs think so and traditional valuation measures such as the equity risk premium (chart) make bonds look expensive relative to equities when compared to the average over the last 20 years.

A Hungarian default?

March 23, 2012

More on Hungary. It’s not hard to find a Hungary bear but few are more bearish than William Jackson at Capital Economics.