Global Investing

No Czech intervention but watch the crown

February 7, 2013

The Czech central bank surprised many this week after its policy meeting. Widely expected to announce the timing and extent of FX market interventions, Governor Miroslav Singer not only failed to do so, he effectively signalled that intervention was no longer on the cards — at least in the short term  In his words, looser monetary conditions were now “less urgent”.

Are EM forex reserves strong enough?

By Reuters Staff
November 23, 2012

One of the big stories of the past decade has been the massive jump in central bank reserves, with total reserves having quintupled from a decade ago to around $10.6 trillion.

Golden Time for Turkey

October 15, 2012

One would have thought the brewing tensions in neighbouring Iran — an unravelling economy and the likelihood of an air strike by Israel– would only be a source of concern for Turkey. Every cloud, though….

Is the rouble overhyped?

October 4, 2012

For many months now the Russian rouble has been everyone’s favourite currency. Thanks to all the interest it rose 4 percent against the dollar during the July-September quarter. How long can the love affair last?

Will Poland have an “ECB moment”?

August 1, 2012

When Poland stunned markets in May with a quarter-point rate rise, analysts at Capital Economics predicted that the central bank would have an “ECB moment” before the year was over, a reference to the European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates last year, just months after it hiked them. A slew of weak economic data, from industrial output to retail sales and employment, indicates the ECB moment could arrive sooner than expected. PMI readings today shows the manufacturing business climate deteriorated for the fourth straight month, remaining in contraction territory.

Poland, the lonely inflation targeter

May 9, 2012

Is the National Bank of Poland (NBP) the last inflation-targeting central bank still standing?

Hungary can seek IMF aid now. But can it cut rates?

April 25, 2012

The European Union has given Budapest the green light to seek aid from the IMF. (see here)  In fact, the breakthrough after five months of dispute does not let Hungary completely off the hook  — to get its hands on the money, Viktor Orban’s government will have to backtack on some controversial recent legislation, starting with its efforts to curb the central bank’s independence.  It remains to be seen if Orban will actually cave in.

Ukraine’s $58 billion problem

April 24, 2012

Ukrainian officials were at pains to reassure investors last week that no debt default was in the offing. But people familiar with the numbers will find it hard to believe them.

A Hungarian default?

March 23, 2012

More on Hungary. It’s not hard to find a Hungary bear but few are more bearish than William Jackson at Capital Economics.

How Turkey cut interest rates but didn’t really

February 21, 2012

How do you cut interest rates without actually loosening monetary policy? Turkey’s central bank effectively did that today.