Global Investing

Emerging policy-One cut, two steady

January 21, 2013

What a varied bunch emerging markets have become. At last week’s monetary policy meetings, we saw one rate rise (Serbia) and differing messages from the rest. Mexico turned dovish while hitherto dovish Brazilian central bank finally mentioned the inflation problem. Russia meanwhile kept markets guessing, signalling it could either raise rates next month or cut them.

The Watanabes are coming

December 28, 2012

With Shinzo Abe’s new government intent on prodding the Bank of Japan into unlimited monetary easing, it is hardly surprising that the yen has slumped to two-year lows against the dollar. This could lead to even more flows into overseas markets from Japanese investors seeking higher-yield homes for their money.

After bumper 2012, more gains for emerging Europe debt?

By Reuters Staff
December 21, 2012

By Alice Baghdjian

Interest rate cuts in emerging markets, credit ratings upgrades and above all the tidal wave of liquidity from Western central banks have sent almost $90 billion into emerging bond markets this year (estimate from JP Morgan). Much of this cash has flowed to locally-traded emerging currency debt, pushing yields in many markets to record lows again and again. Local currency bonds are among this year’s star asset classes, returning over 15 percent, Thomson Reuters data shows.

Fitch’s Xmas gift for Hungary leaves analysts agog

December 21, 2012

Hungary’s outlook upgrade to stable from positive by Fitch was greeted with incredulity by many analysts. Benoit Anne at Societe Generale wonders if the decision had anything to do with the Mayan prophecy that proclaiming the end of the world on Dec. 21:

Hungary’s forint and rate cut expectations

December 18, 2012

A rate cut in Hungary is considered a done deal today. But a sharp downward move in the forint  is making future policy outlook a bit more interesting.

Emerging Policy-More interest rate cuts

December 17, 2012

A big week for central bank meetings looms and the doves are likely to be in full flight.

The BBB credit ratings traffic jam

December 17, 2012

Adversity is a great leveller. Just look at the way sovereign credit ratings in the developed and emerging world have been converging ever since the credit crisis erupted five years ago. JPMorgan  has crunched a few numbers.

EM interest rates in 2013 – rise or fall

December 3, 2012

This year has been all about interest rate cuts. As Western central banks took their policy-easing efforts to ever new levels, emerging markets had little recourse but to cut rates as well. Interest rates in many countries from Brazil to the Czech Republic are at record lows.

Emerging policy-Down in Hungary; steady in Latin America

November 28, 2012

A mixed bag this week on emerging policy and one that shows the growing divergence between dovish central Europe and an increasingly hawkish (with some exceptions) Latin America.

Emerging Policy-Data vindicates doves but not all are cutting

November 14, 2012

Rate decisions last week in emerging markets well anticipated this week’s crop of economic data.