Global Investing

Another nail in the Malthusian coffin?

September 22, 2009

All the talk of addressing the global imbalances throws a spotlight on contrasting demographic trends in the world’s two most populous nations — China and India.

from MacroScope:

China leading other markets?

September 2, 2009

It's becoming increasingly common to blame Chinese stocks for recent volatility in global markets.

The Big Five: Themes for the Week Ahead

August 24, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

CENTRAL BANKERS IN A HOLE
– The global economy and financial system appear on the road to recovery but that is in large part due to unprecedented official stimulus that will have to be withdrawn at some point – the questions investors want answered are when, and how.  Central bankers no longer appear to be quite as shoulder to shoulder with one another on coordinated policy as they were last year in the aftermath of Lehman’s collapse.
 

from DealZone:

Truckin’ in China

August 21, 2009

It may be a fertile market, but Caterpillar and Navistar are hardly breaking new ground with plans to set up a joint venture in the People's Republic. A source tells us the two U.S. machine makers are teaming up with China's Jianghuai Automobile to set up a truck venture, a source said, hoping to gain a foothold in China's 150 billion yuan ($22 billion) heavy truck market. But while the market may be fertile, it is a crowded space for foreign firms, with Daimler, MAN and others already tied-up with local partners.

The Big Five: themes for the week ahead

August 10, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

APPETITE TO CHASE? 
- Equity bulls have managed to retain the upper hand so far and the MSCI world index is up almost 50 percent from its March lows. However, earnings may need to show signs of rebounding for the rally’s momentum to be sustained. Even those looking for further equity gains think the rise in stock prices will lag that in earnings once the earnings recovery gets underway, as was the case in past cycles. The symmetry/asymmetry of market reaction to data this week — as much from China as from the major developed economies — will show how much appetite there is to keep chasing the rally higher. 

The Big Five: themes for the week ahead

August 3, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

GOOD RUN 
-  Stocks have managed to extend their rally but potential hurdles, such as this week’s U.S. non-farm payrolls, could prove increasingly hard to leap given valuations — European stocks are trading at their highest multiples of earnings since May 2008 while the multiple for the S&P is the highest since mid-September 2008. If investors are to boost equity holdings — which Reuters polls show already back to pre-Lehman levels — it may require more concrete evidence of economic expansion, rather than just economic stabilisation, and signs that profit margins will be supported by revenue growth, rather than cost cutting. 

Slow and steady wins the race: Malkiel

July 28, 2009

Investment guru Burton Malkiel, author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, has revealed at a briefing that Chinese equities form the largest part of his personal satellite portfolio, although the core remains in low-cost index funds.

The Big Five: themes for the week ahead

July 27, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

HOLDING UP — FOR NOW 
- A good run in equities has so far been helped rather than hindered by U.S. company results. Some are questioning how long the upward momentum can be sustained given cost-cutting rather than improved revenue streams flattered profit margins. The European earnings season, which cranks up a gear this week, and the release of U.S. Q2 GDP data could be potential triggers for a pullback, but the sensitivity to bad news may depend on how much money is chasing the latest push higher. 
    

from Commentaries:

Is China after the secret of Guinness?

July 21, 2009

DIAGEO/Is Beijing trying to get its hands on the secret brewing recipe for Guinness?

China's sovereign wealth fund has bought a 1.1 percent stake -- worth around 240 million pounds -- in drinks group Diageo, which owns the legendary Irish stout.

The Big Five: themes for the week ahead

July 13, 2009

Five things to think about this week

TUSSLE FOR DIRECTION
- The tussle between bullish and bearish inclinations — with bears gaining a bit of ground so far this month — is being played out over both earnings and economic data. Alcoa got the U.S. earnings season off to a good start but a heavier results week lies ahead and could toss some banana skins into the market’s path. Key financials, technology bellwethers (IBM, Google, Intel), as well as big names like GE, Nokia, Johnson and Johnson will offer more food for thought for those looking past the simple defensive versus cyclical split to choices between early cylicals, such as consumer discretionaries, and late cyclicals, such as industrials, based on the short-term earnings momentum. Macroeconomic data will need to confirm the picture painted by last week’s unexpectedly German strong orders and production figures to give bulls the upper hand.