Global Investing

March bulls give way to April bears in emerging markets

By Reuters Staff
April 13, 2012

The dust has settled on a scintillating first quarter for emerging markets but the cross-asset rally of the first three months has already run out of steam. A survey by Societe Generale of 69 EM investors shows that over half are bearish — at least for the near-term.

Three snapshots for Friday

April 13, 2012

JPMorgan profit beats expectations:

In China the annual rate of GDP growth in the first quarter slowed to 8.1 percent from 8.9 percent in the previous three months, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, below the 8.3 percent consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters.

No hard landing for Chinese real estate

April 10, 2012

The desperate days when Chinese property developers offered free cars as an inducement to homebuyers look to be over.

All in the price in China?

April 4, 2012

It’s been a while since Chinese stocks earned investors fat profits. Last year the Shanghai market lost 22 percent and the compounded return on equity investments there since 1993 is minus 3 percent. This year too China has underwhelmed, rising less than 3 percent so far. Broader emerging equities on the other hand have just concluded their best first quarter since 1992, with gains of over 13 percent.

Urbanization sweet spots

April 3, 2012

It’s a hard slog sometimes looking for new and surprising sources of global economic growth that have not already be heavily discounted by global investors, especially in the uncertain world of 2012. It’s been as hard of late to find new arguments to invest in China and quite a few people suggesting the opposite.

Three snapshots for Monday

April 2, 2012

ISM report on U.S. manufacturing shows PMI at 53.4 in March against 52.4 in February:

March world equity funk flattered by Wall St

April 2, 2012

It was all about the United States last month as far as equity markets were concerned. S&P’s world equity index may have ended the month with a small gain of just 0.3 percent but that was down to a 3 percent rise on  U.S. markets, data from the index provider shows. Strip out the U.S. contribution and it would have been a pretty poor month for world equities. Beyond Wall St, there was a decline of 1.7 percent and $285 billion lost in market value. Instead, the $418 billion added to U.S. market capitalization dragged the global aggregate up by $132 billion.

BRICS: future aid superpowers?

March 26, 2012

Britain’s aid programme for India hit the headlines this year, when New Delhi, much to the fury of the Daily Mail, described Britain’s £200 million annual aid to it as peanuts. Whether it makes sense to send money to a fast-growing emerging power that spends billions of dollars on arms is up for debate but few know that India has been boosting its own aid programme for other poor nations.  A report released today by NGO Global Health Strategies Initiatives (GHSi) finds that India’s foreign assistance grew 10.8 percent annually between 2005 and 2010.

Three snapshots for Monday

March 26, 2012

Is China heading for a hard or soft landing? One chart to keep an eye on is the relative performance of materials equities, the long run of outperformance since 2000 looks like it might be rolling over.

Three snapshots for Thursday

March 22, 2012

The euro zone’s economy took an unexpected turn for the worse in March, hit by a sharp fall in French and German factory activity. The manufacturing purchasing managers indexes for France and Germany were both worse than even the most pessimistic expectations from economists polled by Reuters.