Global Investing

from Commodity Corner:

Why are commodities risky assets for investors?

December 15, 2009

Recently I received an email asking me to explain why commodities are risky assets. "I would think energy and raw
materials would still be in demand, even if Dubai defaults," the writer said.

When is a speculator not a speculator?

November 13, 2009

A lot of fuss is made about the dangers of speculators in commodity markets. But who is a speculator and who isn’t is based on a definition drawn up in the early part of the last century in the United States. The definition is no longer valid and anybody looking at those reports should be wary of drawing any firm conclusions.

Investors break commodities link with equities

October 23, 2009

Investors smelling profits in commodities are using the sector as an early cycle play, alongside equities, because a lack of production capacity means higher prices sooner rather than later. 

Start building the bunker

September 9, 2009

They keep telling us that the recession is over so maybe now’s the time to start worrying about inflation. That’s the view many wealthy investors are already taking, reasoning that a little bit of the yellow shiny stuff will provide some comfort as we start piling our cash into wheelbarrows to do the weekly groceries shop.

The Big Five: themes for the week ahead

July 6, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

Q3 – CLUES AND CUES
- Global equity markets started the quarter positioned for economic stabilisation after a strong Q2 performance but, even so, EPFR data shows less than a third of the cash that flooded into money market funds in 2008 has exited in the year to date. The Q2 reporting season, which is about to kick off (Alcoa out this week), will show whether there are reasons for investors to draw down their cash holdings further. The U.S. data that came out before the long July 4 weekend held more negative surprises than positive ones, and macroeconomic confirmation of recovery will be needed to tempt more wary investors into equities.

The Big Five: themes for the week ahead

June 1, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

EYE ON CENTRAL BANKS
-  Investors will be on the lookout for any further signals on quantitative easing when the European Central Bank and the Bank of England announce their decisions on Thursday. Analysts see the ECB leaving rates on hold but pushing ahead with and possibly extending a plan to buy up to 60 billion euros in covered bonds. The focus will also be on growth forecasts for the next year and the message they send about the pace of any recovery.

Big Five

May 11, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

VALUATIONS
- The MSCI world stocks index has rebounded 37 percent since March, the VIX fear gauge has hit its lowest level since September 2008, and positive earnings surprises in Europe are marginally outstripping negative ones. But there are serious questions over the equity market’s ability to sustain its rise.

from Commodity Corner:

Correlation Between Oil and Equities Markets

May 7, 2009

oil-vs-stock-market

Oil prices have been trading in an unusually strong positive correlation with equities markets over the past few months on hopes that signs of an economic recovery could mean a boost for energy demand.

Greenland – new and poor country?

November 26, 2008

Greenland, an arctic island with a population of 57,000, voted for self-governance from Denmark in a referendum on Tuesday. The “Yes” camp won an overwhelming 75 percent of the vote.

Hedge funds and commodities find interest cooling

September 10, 2008

rtr1w493.jpgIt was not so long ago that hedge funds and commodities were the two red hot areas to invest in.