Well, I think we’ve successfully put to bed the idea that there’s any structural shift from bonds to equities going on (see here, here and here). Maybe time to look a little more closely at the numbers to pull out some more discrete swings in allocations.
The boom in emerging corporate debt is an ongoing theme that we have discussed often in the past, here on Global Investing as well as on the Reuters news wire. Many of us will therefore recall that outstanding debt volumes from emerging market companies crossed the $1 trillion milestone last October. This year could be shaping up to be another good one.
The past 24 hours have brought news of more fund launches targeting emerging corporate debt; Barings and HSBC have started a fund each while ING Investment Management said its fund launched late last year had crossed $100 million. We have written about the seemingly insatiable demand for corporate emerging bonds in recent months, with the asset class last month surpassing the $1 trillion mark. Data from Thomson Reuters shows today that a record $263 billion worth of EM corporate debt has already been underwritten this year by banks, more than a fifth higher than was issued in the same 2011 period (see graphic):
Anticipation is running high for the ECB’s LTRO 2.0 due on Feb 29.
The first such operation in December has largely benefited peripheral bonds even though estimates show banks used a bulk of their borrowing (seen at just 150-190 bln euros on a net basis) to repay their debt, as the graphic below shows.
Hardly suprising that investment funds want their clients to cough up some money. It is, after all, how they get paid. So an appeal to pension funds from UBS Global Asset Management to stop sitting on the fence is not entirely pro bono. Nonetheless, a new note from the firm that trustees are actually risking things by hanging on to large cash reserves is worth a run through.