On some level, every quarter is a make-or-break earnings season, and maybe that’s particularly true for the midsummer earnings season, as it comes at an otherwise quiet time for the broader markets.

But as investors get ready for Alcoa’s ‘kick-off’ of earnings season (and really, Alcoa serves as a nice beginning more for its symbol’s position in the alphabet than as any barometer for earnings), there may be something to all of the fretting this time around. After all, investors endured an awful fourth quarter, where the entire S&P collectively managed to lose money on an operating basis (thanks, AIG, and Citigroup, and GM, and, um…), and a first quarter mostly notable for a slightly better performance than expected - even though earnings were down 36% from the previous year.

It’s still hard to see where the improvement is going to be, however. Earnings are expected to fall about 36% once again, and investors in recent weeks have finally cottoned to the idea that vaulting over low bars really isn’t much to get optimistic about. If the market is truly going to turn higher, it will depend on the quality of earnings, and there, some aren’t so optimistic. Mike Lewitt, president of Harch Capital Management, said, “I don’t think there’s a lot of revenue growth, just shrinkage - basically everybody is shrinking across the board and that’s what we’re seeing.”

The hope, somehow, is that consumer demand is starting to rebound, however slightly, as people get used to the new economic reality - relieved to still have a job, and ready to buy goods after putting off purchases for some time. “Many people made decisions to postpone purchases but not forego them,” said Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco.

We’ll see. What may be necessary is a bit of reading between the lines when listening to conference calls. Visibility is still limited, and executives aren’t going to be eager to put forth rosy expectations when the economy remains stretched. An outbreak of brutal honesty among top execs isn’t likely, but a bit of hesitancy in describing current business decisions would say a lot.

The latest stock market rally is at a crossroads as bear market bounces go, at least those seen in 2008-2009. They usually last on average 30 trading days. 

Today is the 30th trading day since the UK’s FTSE 100 and the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 hit their lows on March 9. The FTSE 100 has rallied some 15 percent since then, while the FTSEurofirst 300 has surged 22 percent.

Bulls and bears have been at it for sometimes over whether this latest rally is the “real deal” or yet another bear market rally.  Pessimists point to potential shocks in corporate earnings in the latest reporting seasons in the U.S. and Europe, which will give investors a reality check, and the bank stress tests in the United States that are expected to be released on May 4.

Optimists, however, are seizing the not-so-bad economic data from the U.S. to China as well as their belief that equity markets hit the low points 2 to 3 quarters before earnings reach the trough. They argue the market is more or less back on its feet.

Also, the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, has fallen 25 percent since the start of this bounce in equities.

But if you like history, think about the 30 days.

(Reuters photo: Ina Fassbender)