UK private bank Coutts (established in 1622, the year of the Glencore Massacre and two years before the Bank of England was founded) has been very bearish.

It still attaches a high, 25 percent chance to a partial or complete euro zone breakup and has been recommending its investors to position very defensively.

The chart below shows their base-case assumptions of S&P 500 index at 1,300 (about 3% below the current level), along with best and worst case scenarios.


“Our base-case scenario – where the euro zone manages to hold together this year while experiencing a mild-to-normal recession – sees fair value for the S&P 500 at around 1300, with a possible trading range of 1170 to 1430,” Coutts says.

“However, within our base-case scenario we expect periods when euro zone crisis fears flare up and a break-up gets partially priced in, although ultimately avoided.”