Wolfgang Munchau, co-founder and president of Eurointelligence, has raised an uncomfortable prospect for investors in Greece. In a Financial Times column today, the long-time Europe commentator argues that Brussels may not be willing to bail Greece out if it were to default on its debt à la all-but sovereign Dubai World is about to.
Markets are waiting for Argentine President Cristina Fernandez and her husband and predecessor ex-President Nestor Kirchner to show they support plans for Argentina to return to international credit markets after a long absence. Fernandez and Kirchner are known as the presidential couple and no major Argentine policy move can go forward without their stamp of approval. Decision making is seen as almost entirely concentrated in them.
After a round of tax cuts, fiscal expansion and other bailout plans in the United States to rescue the economy, investors are betting that the chances of a U.S. government debt default are almost equal to the probability of a default by hamburger chain McDonald’s.