Global Investing

from Jeremy Gaunt:

The rule of three

August 3, 2010

It is beginning to look like financial markets cannot handle more than three risks. First we have, as MacroScope reported earlier,  Barclays Wealth worrying about U.S. consumers, euro zone debt and Asian overheating.

Emerging markets pull through

July 27, 2010

Emerging market stocks have been a big favourite among investment managers this year, based on the view that long-term growth patterns remain in place despite the wobbles in developed economies. But it has not been an easy ride. MSCI’s emerging market stocks index has been in an out of positive territory for much of the year.  It has just moved back into the black after a rally of  more than 16  percent since late May.

from MacroScope:

What are the risks to growth?

July 19, 2010

Mike Dicks, chief economist and blogger at Barclays Wealth, has identified what he sees as the three biggest problems facing the global economy, and conveniently found that they are linked with three separate regions.

from MacroScope:

Are CDS markets the euro zone’s iceberg?

February 15, 2010

icebergIn an unfortunate turn of phrase at the height of his country's current debt crisis, Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou on Monday compared his government's Herculean task in slashing deficits and debts as akin to changing the course of the Titanic. Sadly, we all know where the great "unsinkable" ended up almost a century ago and I'm sure,  given the chance, Mr Papaconstantinou would have chosen another metaphor. But if the Greek economy (or perhaps the euro zone at large?) is to be cast as the Titanic, then what is its potential iceberg?

The Big Five: Themes for the Week Ahead

August 24, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

CENTRAL BANKERS IN A HOLE
– The global economy and financial system appear on the road to recovery but that is in large part due to unprecedented official stimulus that will have to be withdrawn at some point – the questions investors want answered are when, and how.  Central bankers no longer appear to be quite as shoulder to shoulder with one another on coordinated policy as they were last year in the aftermath of Lehman’s collapse.
 

Crowing about good earnings

August 3, 2009

Investors have been cock-a-hoop about the latest earnings season — and probably with some reason. There has been positive surprise after positive surprise, particularly in America. Thomson Reuters latest research shows that of the 337 companies in the S&P 500 that had reported through Friday, 74 percent came in above analysts expectations.

from MacroScope:

Crisis reading: What’s in the book bag?

June 10, 2009

Readers of MacroScope who live in the northern hemisphere will be gearing up for some summer reading.

from MacroScope:

How to calculate the decline of decline

June 3, 2009

Analysts and strategists assessing whether there’s an economic recovery on the way are increasingly referring to “second derivatives”. It usually means a measure, say production, has declined, but not by as much as it did last month, or quarter.

Big Five

April 27, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

REBOUND
- The global stock market has lost some of its spring, although it still managed a seventh straight  week of gains last week. A serious pullback has yet to be seen and the VIX is managing to hold fairly close to the sub-40 lows. Faced with a deluge of earnings, investors are picking their way through a mass of mixed earnings news and forecasts and displaying a more symmetric reaction to good/bad news than in past months.

Morgan Stanley bales out

April 6, 2009

Say this for Morgan Stanley — it is not afraid to buck the trend. With world stocks up more than five percent in the few days that have been April trading and up 24 percent since hitting a low on March 9, the bank has decided bale out. In its latest strategy report, MS says it is moving 5 percent out of stocks to neutral. It likes cash.