Global Investing

Three snapshots for Friday

April 27, 2012

The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, slightly weaker than expected.  Consumer spending which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, increased at a 2.9 percent rate – contributing two percentage points to the overall growth rate.

Turning point for lagging emerging stock returns?

April 27, 2012

Over the past year emerging markets have broadly lagged an upswing in global equity markets, yielding cumulative returns of 4.5 percent since last August. That’s less than half the return developed markets have provided (see graphic below).

Three snapshots for Thursday

April 26, 2012

Weaker than expected economic data has pushed Citigroup’s G10 surprise indicator into negative territory. The indicator has tracked closely with the relative performance of equities vs bonds:

Three snapshots for Tuesday

April 24, 2012

U.S. consumer confidence came in slightly weaker than expected but the ‘jobs-hard-to-get’ index – historically a good lead indicator of the unemployment rate - fell to 37.5 in April.

Play the mini-cycles, not the euro crisis

April 20, 2012

For all the headline attention on euro zone political heat over the next six weeks or so  (Spain is already in the spotlight, Sunday is the first round of the French presidential elections, Greece goes to the polls on May 6, Ireland votes on the EU fiscal pact on May 31 etc etc),  global investors may be better rewarded if they follow the more mundane runes of the world’s manufacturing cycle for tips on market direction.

Three snapshots for Wednesday

April 18, 2012

Spanish house prices fell 7.2 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier while Spanish banks’ bad loans rose to their highest level since October 1994 (see chart).

from MacroScope:

Foreign investors still buying American

April 17, 2012

Overseas investors have yet to sour towards U.S. assets despite high government debt levels, according the latest figures on capital flows.

Hard times for EM in QE-less world of higher US yields

April 4, 2012

Now that the Fed appears to have dashed any lingering hopes for an imminent QE3, what’s next for emerging markets? Most observers put this year’s stellar performance of emerging bonds, currencies and equities largely down to the various money-printing or cheap money operations in the developed world. That’s kept core government bond yields bumping along near record lows and benefited higher-yielding emerging assets.

All in the price in China?

April 4, 2012

It’s been a while since Chinese stocks earned investors fat profits. Last year the Shanghai market lost 22 percent and the compounded return on equity investments there since 1993 is minus 3 percent. This year too China has underwhelmed, rising less than 3 percent so far. Broader emerging equities on the other hand have just concluded their best first quarter since 1992, with gains of over 13 percent.

Three snapshots for Wednesday

April 4, 2012

Markets starting to worry about an end to QE/LTRO liquidity?

 

Forward looking PMI data is starting to show a divergence between the UK and the euro zone: