Global Investing

Weekly Radar: Dollar building steam?

March 14, 2013

FOMC/FRANCO-GERMAN SUMMIT/GERMAN-FRENCH-SPAIN AUCTIONS/GLOBAL FLASH PMIS FOR MARCH/UK BUDGET-JOBS-CPI-BOE MINS/ICC HEARING ON KENYATTA/SAFRICA RATES

No Czech intervention but watch the crown

February 7, 2013

The Czech central bank surprised many this week after its policy meeting. Widely expected to announce the timing and extent of FX market interventions, Governor Miroslav Singer not only failed to do so, he effectively signalled that intervention was no longer on the cards — at least in the short term  In his words, looser monetary conditions were now “less urgent”.

Weekly Radar: Glass still half-full?

January 31, 2013

ECB,BOE,RBA MEETINGS/ US-CHINA DEC TRADE DATA/CHINESE INFLATION/EU BUDGET SUMMIT/EUROPEAN EARNINGS/BUND AUCTION/SERVICES PMIS

Weekly Radar: Managing expectations

January 24, 2013

With a week to go in January, global stock markets are up 3.8 percent – gently nudging higher after the new year burst and with a continued evaporation of volatility gauges toward new 5-year lows. That’s all warranted by a reappraisal of the global economy as well as murmurs about longer-term strategic shifts back to under-owned and cheaper equities. But, as ever, you can never draw a straight line. If we were to get this sort of move every month this year, then total returns for the year on the MCSI global index would be 50 percent – not impossible I guess, but highly unlikely. So, at some stage the market will pause, hestitate or even take a step back. Is now the time just three weeks into the year?

Weekly Radar: Market stalemate sees volatility ebb further

January 17, 2013

Global markets have found themselves at an interesting juncture of underlying new year bullishness stalled by trepidation over several short-term headwinds (US debt debate, Q4 earnings, Italian elections etc etc) – the net result has been stalemate, something which has sunk volatility gauges even further. Not only did this week’s Merrill funds survey show investors overweight bank stocks for the first time since 2007, it also showed demand for protection against a sharp equity market drops over the next 3 months at lowest since at least 2008. The latter certainly tallies with the ever-ebbing VIX at its lowest since June 2007. Though some will of course now argue this is “cheap” – it’s a bit like comparing the cost of umbrellas even though you don’t think it’s going to rain.

$1trillion of euro zone bonds to snap up in 2013

January 3, 2013

Investors keen to wade deeper into the euro zone’s quieter waters  will have 765 billion euros,  or just over $1  trillion, worth of fresh government bonds offered to them this year, nearly 8 percent less than in 2012,  Deutsche Bank writes in a report.

Weekly Radar: From fiscal cliff to fiscal tiff…

January 3, 2013

The new year starts with a markets ‘whoosh’, thanks to some form of detente in DC — though this one was already motoring in 2012. The New Year’s Eve rally was the biggest final day gain in the S&P500 since 1974, for what it’s worth.  And for investment almanac obsessives, Wednesday’s 2%+ gains are a good start to so-called “five-day-rule”, where net gains in the S&P500 over the first five trading days of the year have led to a positive year for equity year overall on 87 percent of 62 years since 1950.

Fitch’s Xmas gift for Hungary leaves analysts agog

December 21, 2012

Hungary’s outlook upgrade to stable from positive by Fitch was greeted with incredulity by many analysts. Benoit Anne at Societe Generale wonders if the decision had anything to do with the Mayan prophecy that proclaiming the end of the world on Dec. 21:

The BBB credit ratings traffic jam

December 17, 2012

Adversity is a great leveller. Just look at the way sovereign credit ratings in the developed and emerging world have been converging ever since the credit crisis erupted five years ago. JPMorgan  has crunched a few numbers.

Survival of the fattest?

October 19, 2012

Is there room only for the biggest, most aggressively-marketed funds in crisis-hit Europe?