Global Investing

Measuring political risk in emerging markets

October 10, 2014

(Corrects to say EI Sturdza is UK investment firm, not Swiss)

Commerzbank analyst Simon Quijano-Evans recently analysed credit ratings for emerging market countries and concluded that there is a strong tendency to “under-rate” emerging economies – that is they are generally rated lower than developed market “equals” that have similar profiles of debt, investment or reform. The reason, according to Quijano-Evans, is that ratings assessments tend to be “blurred by political risk which is difficult to quantify and is usually higher in the developing world compared with richer peers.

Bleak investment outlook sours mood at Russia forum

September 10, 2014

By Alexander Winning

What are the chances that Western investors will rush back to Russia if a shaky ceasefire in Ukraine leads to a more lasting peace? Pretty slim, judging by a keynote speech at a recent Russia-focused investment conference in London.

Turkey: investment grade, peace and FDI?

May 21, 2013

Turkey’s elevation to investment grade last week may or may not be a game changer for its stock and bond markets, but the country is really hoping for a boost to FDI – bricks-and-mortar foreign direct investment  into manufacturing or power generation. Its peace process with Kurdish separatists should help.

India’s deficit — not just about oil and gold

April 18, 2013

India’s finance minister P Chidambaram can be forgiven for feeling cheerful. After all, prices for oil and gold, the two biggest constituents of his country’s import bill, have tumbled sharply this week. If sustained, these developments might significantly ease India’s current account deficit headache — possibly to the tune of $20 billion a year.

Ratings more than a piece of paper for Africa

By Reuters Staff
February 28, 2013

By Stephen Eisenhammer

Does a sovereign credit rating from a glass tower in London or New York impact life in the country being rated? Apparently in Africa it does.

African growth if China slows

December 11, 2012

The  apparent turnaround in Africa’s fortunes over the past decade has been attributed to the rise of China and its insatiable appetite for African commodities. So African policymakers, like those everywhere, will have been relieved by the recent uptick in Chinese economic data.

Certain danger: Extreme investing in Africa

July 12, 2012

The Arab Spring, for all its democratic and political virtues,  put a big economic dent in the side of participating North African countries, particularly when it came to attracting foreign investment in 2011.

from MacroScope:

Yet more lagging from Italy and Greece

February 28, 2012

At this stage in the euro zone crisis, we probably don't need to be reminded how uncompetitive the peripheral economies are. (Arguably, of course, they would not be economically peripheral if they were more competitive, but that is for tautologists to debate).  The United Nations, in the form of UNCTAD, has just pinpointed another weakness, however -- huge underperformance  in foreign directed investing, or FDI.

Retail volte face confirms India as BRIC that disappoints

December 6, 2011

Jim O’Neill, the Goldman Sachs banker who coined the term BRICs to capture the fast-growing emerging-markets quartet of Brazil, Russia, India and China,  has fingered India as the BRIC that has disappointed the most over the past decade in terms of reforms, FDI and productivity. New Delhi’s latest decision to put on hold a landmark reform of its retail sector will only confirm this view.

SWFs climbing the German wall

July 21, 2010

The Vale Columbia Center on Sustainable International Investment’s latest report on foreign direct investment looks at inward flows to Germany.  Things look like they were a bit better last year than the year before, apparently.