Merrill Lynch is giving a refresher course on Ten Markets Rules to Remember, created by Bob Farrell, the bank’s former dean of research during his tenure from 1957-2001.
Below are the original rules:
#1: Markets tend to return to the mean over time
#2: Excess in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction
#3: There are no new eras, excesses are never permanent
#4: Exponentially rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
#5: The public buys the most at the top, the least at the bottom
#6: Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve
#7: Markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names
#8: Bear markets have three stages: sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
#9: When all experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen
#10: Bull markets are more fun than bear markets
So what does this mean today?
David Rosenberg, Merrill’s North American economist says: ”Rule #4 could be about the sliding U.S. dollar, as it now revives in mean-reverting fashion (back to Rule #1) .”
Any other thoughts on offer?