It wasn’t a good year for emerging market bonds, with all three main debt benchmarks posting negative returns for the first time since 2008. But the benchmark indices run by JPMorgan nevertheless saw a modest increase in market capitalisation, and assets of the funds that benchmark to these indices also rose.
JPMorgan says its index family — comprising EMBI Global dollar bond indices, the CEMBI group listing corporate debt and the GBI-EM index of local currency emerging bonds — ended 2013 with a combined market cap of $2.8 trillion, a 2 percent increase from end-2012. Take a look at the following graphic which shows the rise in the market cap since 2001:
Last year’s rise was clearly much slower than during previous years. It was driven mainly by the boom in corporate bonds, which witnessed record $350 billion-plus issuance last year, taking the market cap of the CEMBI to $716 billion compared to $620 billion at the end of 2012, JPM said.
The EMBI Global indices of sovereign dollar bonds fared less well, with capitalisation rising just 1.2 percent to $586 billion. But even here, the growth was largely down to companies — quasi-sovereigns’ share of the index- rose to 27.6 percent, up from 23 percent of a year back.
Local debt fared worst, with market capitalisation actually declining 3.1 percent to $1.5 trillion, but that was largely because of a broad 6 percent-plus fall in emerging currencies versus the dollar.