"You wonder if your chance will ever come or if you're stuck in square one."

When I heard about GM keeping its Opel unit, that line from a song by British band Coldplay came to my mind. After all those long nights of paltering on job cuts and money, GM was having a change of heart.

The sale of Opel to a group led by Canadian car parts maker Magna -- announced in September -- was widely considered a done deal. Turns out, it was less done than more. Citing improving business conditions and the strategic importance of Opel, GM decided it would be better to alienate the German government that provided it with a loan to sweeten the sale of the unit to Magna than to lose the business. GM said it would repay the rest of the 1.5 billion euro ($2.2 billion) bridge loan if Berlin requested. The loan helped save Opel from being sucked into GM's dip into bankruptcy this year.

"This is a black day for Opel," an employee, who declined to be named, said in front of the company's headquarters in Ruesselsheim, near Frankfurt. German government officials were said to be seething, as were the Russians, who's Sperbank had tied up with Magna to do the deal. But not all of Europe was angry. British unions welcomed the news. "It is fantastic news for the UK and right that General Motors does not break up its family and instead retains ownership of (Opel sister brand) Vauxhall," said Tony Woodley, joint general secretary of the Unite union.

Analysts say big questions remain about what GM will do with Opel when consumer-friendly car scrapping schemes expire. At that point, will it be back to square one?

This week's Thomson Reuters Investment Banking Scorecard shows bankruptcy-related M&A at a five year high.

There were five bankruptcy-related M&A deals announced during the week, including the acquisition of venture-backed public company Nanogen by French investment holding company Financiere Elitech for $25.7 million. 

So far this year there have been 173 bankruptcy-related deals, the highest level since the same period of 2004 when there were 202.

During 2009 the most bankruptcy-related M&A deals have occurred in the industrials sector with 23 percent, followed by the media and entertainment sector with 16 percent. 

In terms of geography, U.S. targets represent 83 deals or 48 percent of the total of bankruptcy M&A.

This is hardly surprising given the speed with which some of the biggest bankruptcies have happened in the U.S. -- with a little help from section 363 easing rapid asset sales at GM and Chrysler.

The rest of the world probably has some catching up to do.

Arzu Cevik, director at Thomson Reuters Strategic Research, writes:

“With Citi shares trading below $1, the first time since 1970 that a “penny stock” traded on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it is widely expected that it will be removed from the index.

“The company was added to the Dow in 1997 when it was still known as Travelers, and the last company to be removed from the Dow was AIG last September (when its stock hovered above $1) and was replaced by Kraft Foods.

“It’s also expected that General Motors may be removed from the Dow. GM shares are trading slightly above $1 and there’s speculation it may be headed toward bankruptcy.

“There are other stocks in the Dow that are now a part of Wall Street’s Dollar Menu. In fact, there are currently five Dow stocks trading in the single digit range.

“Who will take their place in the Dow? Mostly likely, another company whose stock is faring better or relatively better in this recessionary environment.

“There aren’t too many of those but if I had to guess, I’d say it would have to be a company with a strong brand name and one that is viewed as influential. Also, one whose shares aren’t trading in the single digits.

“On the technology front, Apple and Google are possible contenders. In the pharmaceuticals/biotech world, perhaps Abbot Labs, Amgen, Bristol, Genentech and Gilead Sciences could be considerations. If terms of other industries and companies, perhaps Monsanto or Amazon?

“Some might argue about the relevance of the Dow as it doesn’t accurately depict what’s happening in the markets because of its limited number of stocks and because it is price-weighted rather than market-value weighted like the S&P 500.

“However, there is still a prestige factor involved in being part of this elite group and any company added would see a boost in volume and possibly price.

“The top editor at The Wall Street Journal, which is published by Dow Jones, decides on changes to the index. It was reported (by Reuters) that they are currently monitoring the situation ‘closely.’

“Who do you think should be included in the Dow and why?”

Around 200 union workers and some local politicians protested wage cuts and other givebacks required by the Bush administration’s bailout of General Motors and Chrysler.
    
“The call for wage cuts is an attack on the middle class,” said Rex Lux, a truck driver at Chrysler who said he had come to the rally to show his support for organized labor. “The middle class send their kids to college, they buy cars and they keep the American economy going.”
    
“Why break the middle class?” he asked.
 
The protest in Warren, Michigan, came two days after a smaller rally (pictured above) outside the Detroit auto show by members of the United Auto Workers union.
 
The $17.4 billion federal bailout for the U.S. automakers includes concession targets such as making union-represented workers’ wages competitive with foreign manufacturers by December 2009 and eliminating the union jobs banks, which pays laid-off workers.

(Photo/Reuters)

Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker (right, in the driver’s seat next to Mark Fields, Ford’s president of the Americas), who pushed for tough conditions on the $17.4 billion U.S. government bailout for General Motors and Chrysler, said at the Detroit auto show that he hoped Chrysler would find a merger partner to survive.

“Chrysler probably needs to merge with somebody, not necessarily disappear from the standpoint of existence,” said Corker, who added the automaker owned by Cerberus Capital Management was not making the needed investment to remain competitive. He spoke to reporters as he toured the show before meeting with executives for GM, Chrysler and Ford.

Corker, whose home state includes the U.S. headquarters for Japan’s Nissan, also said he felt GM’s debt load was too heavy and it may not meet the restructuring targets set out under the $13.4 billion loan granted to the company by the Bush administration.

The Republican senator met with GM Chief Operating Officer Fritz Henderson and, during his visit to the GM stand at the show, sat in the Cadillac Converj, a luxury model of the all-electric Chevrolet Volt concept car.

Corker said he loved the Jeep he drove before he came to Congress, though he did not specify which model. Chrysler, which received $4 billion in emergency loans, owns the Jeep brand.

The most contentious issue in the Bush administration’s bailout plan is a goal that seeks to bring hourly wages for the U.S. automakers’ unionized work force in line with those of Toyota and other Japanese automakers operating nonunion U.S. factories.

The labor give-back provisions were spearheaded by Corker and incorporated into the bailout. A proposal to strip the Corker-inspired labor provisions from the automaker rescue was included in legislation introduced in the House of Representatives last week.

The UAW has said it is open to making some changes to help GM and Chrysler lower costs, but has vowed to try and get the administration of President-elect Barack Obama to amend the giveback targets. Obama, a Democrat, takes office Jan. 20.

GM and Chrysler are under tight deadlines to show progress. The automakers must demonstrate to the government within several weeks that they are lowering costs and making other changes required under the Bush administration’s bailout plan.

GM CEO Rick Wagoner has said the automaker could seek further loans from the government at the end of March if the U.S. auto market does not improve. 

Corker also made a point during his tour of saying he had flown a commercial plane to Detroit for his visit. “I came Northwest Airlines and I want you to know it was right on time.”

The CEOs for GM, Chrysler and Ford were criticized by lawmakers in November for separately flying company jets instead of less costly commercial planes to Washington as they sought billions in bailout funds from Congress.

(Photo/Reuters)

This post was written by colleague Christiaan Hetzner.

Listening to GM Europe CEO Carl-Peter Forster (right), there is a big side benefit of having the thankless job of running a business in danger of being dragged under by its foundering parent. 
 
For one, you are not publicly humiliated by lawmakers with an ax to grind the next time you try and hit them up for aid.
 
Whereas U.S. congressmen eager to score points with taxpayers were just itching to take turns tag-teaming his boss Rick Wagoner, Forster said he is treated with far more respect and understanding by the German and Swedish governments when he participates in discussions over receiving billions in state loan guarantees. GM is looking to sell its Saab brand in Sweden.
 
Asked at the Detroit auto show whether the talks were considered in Europe to be as controversial as those in Washington, Forster replied: “Interestingly enough, the Europeans take a very, very different approach. Much less hostile, virtually not hostile at all, seeing the automotive industry as a very important industry.”
 
GM Europe has a funding requirement peaking this year, in part due to this year’s roll-out of the new Opel Astra and Saab 9-5 cars, key models for both brands.
 
 ”They (state officials) understand the extraordinary circumstances in Europe — by the way, the circumstances in the U.S. are even more extraordinary than in Europe. They know how important the industry is for the European economy and particularly for certain member states like Germany, France, Italy, the UK and so on. Absolutely no hostility, very open, understand the situation and try to come up with a solution.”
 
Perhaps lawmakers in the more socialist governments across the Atlantic better realize what would happen if Opel or Saab cannot get the loan guarantees needed to access to the European Investment Bank’s 16 billion-euro fund for the European auto industry, which is only open to companies with an investment grade rating. 
 
(Photo/Reuters)

Reuters interviewed Peter DeLorenzo, publisher of website Autoextremist.com during the Detroit auto show. Highlights follow:

Q: What kind of shape do you see the U.S. automakers in?

– Ford

“Ford is clearly distancing themselves from what I now refer to as the old Detroit two.”
       
– GM
   
“There’s kind of a Jekyll-and-Hyde thing going on with General Motors.”
   
– Chrysler

“I call it the dead car company walking. There are too many serious problems hovering over Chrysler right now.”
    
“The suppliers are starting to make contingency plans for a world that doesn’t have Chrysler in it.”
    
“I just don’t see them surviving the year.”
    
“If the economy doesn’t start to show signs of life, I don’t think Chrysler can keep the whole thing afloat.”
    
Q: Are electric cars finally going to be a reality given the time lines announced at the show?
    
“Will electric vehicles be a part of this nation’s fleet in the future? Absolutely, but I don’t think they will ever be more than 25 percent. Hybrids will be a strong player going forward.”
    
Q: Will those time lines put the U.S. automakers under greater pressure, however?
    
“Being put under the microscope in Washington just opened a Pandora’s box of attention on the Detroit automakers.”
    
Q: Will luxury auto market suffer even more than the overall market in the recession?
    
“I don’t think there’s any question that the availability of incentivized leasing programs allowed people to get into vehicles they couldn’t normally afford.”
    
“A shakeout is coming. It’s probably going to hit import manufacturers really hard.”
    
“It (the luxury segment) will still exist, but I think it will be at a reduced level and stay there for a while.” 

(Photo/Autoextremist.com)

Reeling from crisis and in hock to the federal government for $13.4 billion, General Motors spent only about half of what it normally spends on its display at the Detroit auto show this year. There were no pyrotechnics, no marching bands, no celebrities, no models.

But GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz surveyed the stripped-down display and found plenty to like in the new austerity.

“When you are really under severe financial stress and you have loans that you know that you are going to repay you start looking at what’s really important,” Lutz said.

“When you’re in a financial crisis it forces us to focus on the things that we have to have, rather than those that are nice to have.”

GM was not alone as almost every automaker slashed spending at the show this year.

In the boom days, Lutz recalled GM had spent lavishly, once spending almost half a million dollars on a Saturn display that featured a tower that visitors could climb to see holograms dance over the exterior of cars and make it seem as though the viewer was looking right through the sheet metal.

“This year all of that has been stripped out,” Lutz said. ”But I think it looks a lot better. I think our stand has never looked better, more organized, business-like, or more reflective of GM’s excellence. And it comes from not having the money to do dumb things with.”

(Photo/Reuters)

Don’t put any money down for a high-end electric car just yet. 
     
General Motors has no current plans to make the Cadillac Converj (right), a luxury concept of the Chevrolet Volt plug-in electric car that was introduced at the Detroit auto show, said Mark McNabb, North American vice president of Cadillac/Premium Brands. 
     
GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said during the show the Volt remains on track to launch by the end of 2010. Showing off the Converj, Lutz said GM is confident enough about the Volt technology that the company can start looking at Volt derivatives. 
     
The Volt, which is being designed to run for 40 miles on battery power alone, will not be profitable until battery costs drop and one way to do that is to increase volume on the model. Offering the Converj would help, while also attracting higher profit margins. 
     
However, if the U.S. automaker decides to move ahead on the well-received Converj, a production version could look close to the concept, McNabb said. 
     
“It was done more to measure a little bit how the luxury market would assess ‘green.’ It is what it is. It’s just really an exploration into green versus luxury - can it be done and all that.” 
     
McNabb pointed out the Converj is based on existing technology. 
     
“It’s not like a pie-in-the-sky concept where you can’t build it or it’s years and years before you could. It’s more a concept of ‘let’s measure how luxury will accept this type of vehicle.’” 
     
(Photo/Reuters)

Reuters spoke with James Bell, editor of the website Intellichoice.com, a website that allows consumers to compare the cost of ownership on vehicles. Highlights follow:
    
Q: What kind of shape are the U.S. automakers in?
 
General Motors –
 
“What was incredible for me was during the Senate hearings, how that company was forced to kind of drop their pants and show an ugly side that maybe they were hoping to kind of keep hidden, but I think the company is going to be better for it.”
 
“Everyone needed to get over the fact that they’re not No. 1 anymore. It’s Toyota.”
 
“There’s still a sense of ‘Why would I buy a GM or Chrysler when I can rent one?’ and that’s a bad spot for them to be in. To the general consumer there’s still a big gap.”
      
Ford Motor – 
 
“Ford go a lot of credit for not going to the (government bailout) well, but that’s only because they already mortgaged their future.”
 
“They’ve done a nice job of distancing themselves from the other two, but it’s not because they’re doing so well. It’s because they’ve already paid the piper, so to speak.”
 
“From a product perspective, they need to make a ton of noise about their hybrids because Toyota has done a fine job of positioning themselves as a hybrid-green-efficient company while they were still pushing Tundras and Sequoias. Whereas General Motors or Ford is seen as an SUV and pickup truck company who had a couple green cars on the side.”
 
“That could be a perception gap closer because I think in a lot of consumers’ minds a company that can do a hybrid well can do a gasoline standard car very well, and Ford’s doing hybrids very well now.”
    
Chrysler –
 
“Their product line is awful. It’s unfortunately true and I’ve driven them all and I’ve tried to find the rose among the thorns and I can’t.”
 
“The (Chrysler) brand is kind of damaged goods now. Dodge still has some equity as being more of a budget, fun, little more of a spirited brand, probably younger skewing as well. Jeep has equity beyond belief. I just think the Chrysler brand is falling into a Plymouth trap of being somewhat irrelevant.”
    
Q: Is the Chevy Volt all-electric car (pictured at LA auto show in November) a potential game changer for GM?
 
“Probably not as much as they would hope because it’s going to be expensive and it won’t be on every street corner like a Prius is in certain cities. The Volt … better arrive at the end of 2010. I don’t think it’s going to bring them the big wave that Prius did for Toyota. It will definitely help, but it’s more a matter of you have to do it just to keep in the game.”
 
“I don’t think consumers are going to shy away from those products because a lot of people got burned pretty hard driving that Yukon and finding out that the ATM card would only let you go up to $75 at the fuel pumps.”
 
“If they put a date on something and they don’t deliver, they’re really going to be done in the public’s eye.”
    
Q: How will the luxury auto market be affected by the recession and has easy credit goosed that market up to now and it will inevitably fall off?
    
“Easy credit has been goosing that market for years as is the leasing business. That really allowed people to drive a vehicle that’s way beyond their means.”
 
“BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, they can weather the storm and I think what they’ll probably do is right-size the business. We are going to a period of austerity for a bit where somebody goes shopping for the Lexus and realizes, ‘We’re really more of a Toyota Avalon household’”
 
“Luxury is going to be defined a little differently going forward. It’s not going to mean the mega V-8 engine with leather everywhere and killer sound system. It might mean efficiency, but with niceties.”
    
Q: What do younger buyers want?
    
“I don’t think (customization) is going to be the Holy Grail. It’s going to be solid product with plenty of creature comforts at a fair price as well as a strong image perception.”
    
Q: What other factors will be important in the overall sales market?
    
“The car business isn’t going to dry up. They still need to get cars. They’re just going at it from a much more rational way. Resale value is going to become a very big factor in people’s purchase decisions.”
  
“There’s just going to be more of a rational look at things and not just going for that new car smell all the time.”
    
(Photo/Reuters)