Turkey gearing up for rate cuts but not today
Could the Turkish central bank surprise markets again today?
Given its track record, few will dare to place firm bets on the outcome of today’s meeting but the general reckoning for now is that the bank will keep borrowing and lending rates steady and signal no immediate change to its weekly repo rate of 5.75 percent. With year-on-year inflation in the double digits, logic would dictate there is no scope for an easier monetary policy.
But there are reasons to believe the Turkish central bank, whose mindset is essentially dovish, is letting its thoughts stray towards rate cuts. Consider the following:
a) Governor Erdem Basci has already said he does not see the need for further policy tightening b)The lira has strengthened 9 percent this year against the dollar and is back at levels last seen in early September, thanks to almost one billion dollars in foreign flows to the Turkish stock market and well-subscribed bond issues. And crucially c) Global factors are supportive (developed central banks are continuing to pump liquidity and a bailout has finally been agreed for Greece) .
So some analysts are already weighing the likelihood of a pre-emptive rate cut in Turkey. ING analyst Sengul Dagdeviren writes:
Depending on the CBT’s view on capital inflows (ECB LTRO due soon, quantitative easing bias strengthening in G10, and Greece worries diminishing look supportive in that regard), the chance that it could surprise markets by lowering the upper band of the overnight interest rate corridor to 9 percent (down from 12.5 percent) remains.
The key to this will be the lira’s exchange rate.
Currency rally drives sizzling returns on emerging local debt
Emerging market bonds denominated in local currencies enjoyed a record January last month with JP Morgan’s GBI-EM Global index returning around 8 percent in dollar terms. Year-to-date, returns are over 9.5 percent.
This is mainly down to spectacular gains on emerging currencies such as the Mexican peso and Turkish lira which have surged 7-10 percent against the dollar and euro this year. Analysts say the currency component of this year’s returns has been around 7 percent, meaning any portfolio hedged for currency risk would have garnered returns of just 2.5 percent.
The gains come as good news to investors licking their wounds after the index ended 2011 in negative territory. A mid-year rout on emerging markets pushed up local bond yields, often by hundreds of basis points and sent many currencies to multi-year lows.
Now, promises of more cheap cash from Western central banks has changed the mood, driving currency rallies. Adding to the optimism is the hope of more interest rate cuts in emerging markets, where inflation has peaked and growth is slowing.
EM growth is passport out of West’s mess but has a price, says “Mr BRIC”
Anyone worried about Greece and the potential impact of the euro debt crisis on the world economy should have a chat with Jim O’Neill. O’Neill, the head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management ten years ago coined the BRIC acronym to describe the four biggest emerging economies and perhaps understandably, he is not too perturbed by the outcome of the Greek crisis. Speaking at a recent conference, the man who is often called Mr BRIC, pointed out that China’s economy is growing by $1 trillion a year and that means it is adding the equivalent of a Greece every 4 months. And what if the market turns its guns on Italy, a far larger economy than Greece? Italy’s economy was surpassed in size last year by Brazil, another of the BRICs, O’Neill counters, adding:
“How Italy plays out will be important but people should not exaggerate its global importance. In the next 12 months the four BRICs will create the equivalent of another Italy.”
Emerging economies are cooling now after years of turbo-charged growth. But according to O’Neill, even then they are growing enough to allow the global economy to expand at 4-4.5 percent, a faster clip than much of the past 30 years. Trade data for last year will soon show that Germany for the first time exported more goods to the four BRICs than to neighbouring France, he said.
“Post-crisis, these countries will be our passport out of this mess.”
But there has to be a payoff for this kind of increased financial clout, he warns. Developing countries are increasingly disgruntled about the the richer world’s strangehold on global policies via the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and most have responded coolly to the call for additional funds for the IMF which is fighting to stem the euro zone malaise. An attempt last year to install a representative of the developing world at the helm of the IMF for the first time ever fell apart, with Europe retaining the position. But emerging countries could make a bid for the World Bank chief’s position this year, a position traditionally held by a U.S. citizen. O’Neill said the West had to bow to the new reality:
“You can’t have it both ways…This game of ‘You have the IMF and I have the World Bank’ has to stop or these institutions are going to lose their relevance.”
He is also dismissive of fears China is headed for a so-called hard landing, a sharp slowdown of growth, potentially leading to unemployment, a property crash and social unrest in the world’s No. 2 economy. ”A lot of people (in the West) want China to have a hard landing, ” he said. “And that’s because it isnt us.”
BRIC: Brilliant/Ridiculous Investment Concept
BRIC is Brazil, Russia, India, China — the acronym coined by Goldman Sachs banker Jim O’Neill 10 years back to describe the world’s biggest, fastest-growing and most important emerging markets. But according to Albert Edwards, Societe Generale‘s uber-bearish strategist, it also stands for Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept. Some investors, licking their wounds due to BRIC markets’ underperformance in 2011 and 2010, might be inclined to agree — stocks in all four countries have performed worse this year than the broader emerging markets equity index, to say nothing of developed world equities.
For years, money has chased BRIC investments, tempted by the countries’ fast growth, huge populations and explosive consumer hunger for goods and services. But Edwards cites research showing little correlation between growth and investment returns. He points out that Chinese nominal GDP growth may have averaged 15.6 percent since 1993 but the compounded return on equity investments was minus 3.3 percent.
But economic growth — the BRIC holy grail – is also now slowing. Data showed this week that Brazil posted zero growth in the third quarter of 2011 compared to last year’s 7.5 percent. Indian growth is at the weakest in over two years. In Russia, rising discontent with the Kremlin — reflected in post-election protests — carries the risk of hitting the broader economy. And China, facing falling exports to a moribund Western world, is also bound to slow. Edwards goes a step further and flags a hard landing in China as the biggest potential investment shock of 2012. “Yet investors persist in the BRIC superior growth fantasy…If growth does matter to investors, they should be worried that things seem to be slowing sharply in the BRIC universe,” he writes.
Thomson Reuters data earlier this year appeared to show some disenchantment with the BRIC concept. After rising 1600-fold between 2003 and 2007, assets in BRIC funds had shrunk to $28 billion by August 2011, almost a quarter below 2007 peaks, a bigger fall in percentage terms than most other fund categories.
What of O’Neill, the man behind the moniker? He talks increasingly of Growth Markets, a broader grouping that also includes other promising emerging countries such as Turkey and Mexico. But at a Reuters investment summit this week O’Neill noted that the main reason for BRIC stocks’ underperformance has been a massive monetary policy tightening exercise in all four countries, prompted by rising inflation. With that at an end and valuations cheaper than they have been for a long time, he expects the BRIC markets, especiallly China, to do better next year despite slower growth. Time will tell.
India: the odd BRIC out
China moved to ease policy this week via a reserve ratio cut for banks, effectively starting to reverse a tightening cycle that’s been in place since last January. Later the same day, Brazil’s central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the third time in a row. Both countries are expected to continue easing policy as the global economic downturn bites. And last week Russia signalled that rate cuts could be on the way.
That makes three of the four members of the so-called BRIC group of the biggest emerging economies. Indonesia, the country some believe should be included in the BRIC group, has also been cutting rates. That leaves India, the fourth leg of the BRICs, the quartet whose name was coined by Goldman Sachs banker Jim O’Neill ten years ago this week. India could use a rate cut for sure. Data this week showed growth slowing to 6.9 percent in the three months to September — the slowest since September 2009. Factory output slowed to a 32-month low last month, feeling the effects of the global malaise as well as 375 basis points in rate increases since last spring. No wonder Indian stocks, down 20 percent this year, are the worst performing of the four BRIC markets.
But unlike the other BRICs, a rate cut is a luxury India cannot afford now — inflation is still running close to double digits. “The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the odd guy out due to stubbornly high inflation of near 10 percent,” writes Commerzbank analyst Charlie Lay.
True, inflation in the other BRICs is also running above target. But nowhere is it as stubborn as in India, and that is due to antiquated infrastructure and supply side bottlenecks. Half-hearted policy reforms means this will remain a problem. Where India differs from the other BRICs is also its large current account deficit of over 4 percent of GDP. This was one reason why the rupee was the hardest hit emerging currency during the November selloff, losing almost 7 percent. Its depreciation adds 30-50 basis points to headline inflation, analysts reckon.
But inflation is broadly expected to start easing from the second quarter of 2012, allowing the RBI to follow other emerging markets and finally start cutting rates. For now though, the best that can be hoped for is that rapidly cooling growth will force the RBI to keep interest rates on hold.
from Jeremy Gaunt:
When things stagnate
Goldman Sachs researchers have been hitting the history books again, trying to divine what happens to currencies when economies stagnate. Answer: Not as much as you might think
Looking at exchange rates for years before and during "stagnation", Goldman found that year-to-year FX volatility in such periods is lower than in normal periods. But a lot of it depends on the type of stagnation.
First, an average stagnation -- a period of sub-par economic growth lasting for at least six years:
On average, the run-up to stagnations (and the early years into an episode) tends to be characterised by moderate FX appreciation. Later on, FX remains flat for a while and gradually assumes a depreciation trend during the last years of stagnation. The average initial appreciation hovers below 5%, while the ultimate depreciation tends to be smaller than 10%.
Next, a "Great Stagnation" -- a period lasting for 10 years or more:
The initial appreciation can reach more than 20% (computed from the years prior to the stagnation) and the posterior depreciation can surpass 10 % .
What does this mean? Well is it not particularly good news for the United States.
from MacroScope:
Emerging markets: Soft patch or recession?
Could the dreaded R word come back to haunt the developing world? A study by Goldman Sachs shows how differently financial markets and surveys are assessing the possibility of a recession in emerging markets. One part of the Goldman study comprising survey-based leading indicators saw the probability of recession as very low across central and eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa. These give a picture of where each economy currently stands in the cycle. This model found risks to be highest in Turkey and South Africa, with a 38-40 percent possibility of recession in these countries. On the other hand, financial markets, which have sold off sharply over the past month, signalled a more pessimistic outcome. Goldman says these indicators forecast a 67 percent probability of recession in the Czech Republic and 58 percent in Israel, followed by Poland and Turkey. Unlike the survey, financial data were more positive on South Africa than the others, seeing a relatively low 32 percent recession risk. Goldman analysts say the recession probabilities signalled by the survey-based indicator jell with its own forecasts of a soft patch followed by a broad sustained recovery for CEEMEA economies. "The slowdown signalled by the financial indicators appears to go beyond the ‘soft patch’ that we are currently forecasting," Goldman says, adding: "The key question now is whether or not the market has gone too far in pricing in a more serious economic downturn."
from Davos Notebook:
Will Goldman’s new BRICwork stand up?
Jim O'Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist who coined the term BRICs back in 2001, is adding four new countries to the elite club of emerging market economies. But does his new edifice have the same solid foundations?
In future, the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, China and India will be merged with those of Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey and South Korea under the banner “growth markets,” O'Neill told the Financial Times.
Hmmm. Doesn't quite grab you like BRICs, does it? The Guardian helpfully offers an amended branding banner of "Bric 'n Mitsk" (geddit?). But which ever way you cut it, it's hard to see a flood of investment conferences and funds floating off under the new moniker.
Ten years ago, Goldman had this field to itself. Now more and more acronyms are being bandied around by banks seeking to pique investors' appetite for higher returns.
Goldman has already launched the N-11, or Next Eleven countries, and other contenders include the VISTA economies (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina), the CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) and the EAGLES (Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies).
So far, none of them have really caught on. One thing you can bank on: the term BRIC will still score highly in any tally of the millions of words that will issue forth from Davos next week.
from Summit Notebook:
Does Germany need Europe?
Jim O'Neill, the new Goldman Sachs Asset Management chairman who is famous for coining the term BRICs for the world's new emerging economic giants, reckons he knows why Germany might not be rushing to bail out all the euro zone debt that is under pressure. Europe is not as important to Berlin as it was.
Speaking at the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit being held in London and New York, O'Neill pointed out that in the not very distant future Germany will have more trade with China than it does with France.
"It's a different global environment. That's why maybe Germany (ties) itself to a rules-based game with the rest of Europe because economically it doesn't mean so much to them now. What goes on in China is more important than what goes on in France and that's puts a different economic (spin) on the situation for the Germans."
O' Neill also drew parallels between the current situation which sees Germany being asked to stump up for ill-disciplined southern euro zone economies and the problems faced in 1990 when West Germany had to do something similar for East Germany.
"Fast forward 20 years and this time (they are saying) it's not even our own people. I think the Germans will stay pro-European , but it's a different set of circumstances."
The idea that Germany and others will eventually sort out the euro zone debt problem because of a desire for political unity underlies much of the long-term expectations for euro zone survival. But it is a new world, in many ways.
Which BRIC? Russia scores late goal for 2010
How quickly times change. Russia’s stock market, unloved for months, last week overtook India to be the best-performing of the four BRICs. The Moscow stock index jumped 5 percent last week, posting its biggest weekly rise in seven months, bringing year-to-date gains to 17.5 percent. Fund managers such as Goldman Sach’s Jim O’Neill, creator of the BRICs term, are predicting it will lead the group next year too.
So what’s with the sudden burst of enthusiasm for Moscow? One catalyst is of course soccer body FIFA’s decision to award the 2018 Soccer World cup to Russia. Investors are piling into infrastructure stocks, with steel producers especially tipped to benefit as Russia starts building stadia, roads and hotels. But the bigger factor, according to John Lomax, HSBC‘s head of emerging equity strategy, is the optimism that has started creeping in about U.S. — and world economic growth.
Some of that may have been dampened by Friday’s lacklustre U.S. jobs data. But overall, checks of U.S. economic vital signs show the economy looking sturdier than it was six months ago and most banks, including the pessimists at Goldman Sachs, have upped 2011 growth forecasts for the world’s biggest economy. And China and India are continuing to grow at rates close to 10 percent. All that is great news for the commodity and oil stocks — the mainstay of the Russian market. Merrill Lynch, for instance, expects oil prices to be $10 higher by next December than now.
“Investors are getting more confident about the cyclical upturn,” Lomax says, citing oil prices and the recent rise in U.S. yields. “So you want to be in Russia which is a global growth play.”
The icing on the cake is the price of Russian stocks. They trade around 6 times 2012 earnings compared to 10 times for emerging stocks as a whole. Goldman’s O’Neill points out fellow-commodity exporting BRIC, Brazil, trades at much higher valuations while the currency too is more expensive. And India, this year’s runner-up is likely to suffer from a double whammy of high inflation and extremely high valuations — Mumbai trades at 16-17 times 2012 earnings.
