Global Investing

Brazil’s inflation problem

January 16, 2013

When will Brazil’s central bank admit it has an inflation problem? Markets will be watching today’s rate-setting meeting for clues.

Weekly Radar: Q4 earnings, China GDP and German elections

January 10, 2013

The first wave of Q4 US earnings, Chinese Q4 GDP  and European inflation dominate next week, while regional polls in Germany’s Lower Saxony the following Sunday give everyone a early peek at ideas surrounding probably the biggest general election of 2013 later in the year.

Emerging Policy-More interest rate cuts

December 17, 2012

A big week for central bank meetings looms and the doves are likely to be in full flight.

Moody’s takes some pressure off Turkey

November 21, 2012

Moody’s disappointed a lot of folks this week when it failed to raise Turkey’s credit rating to investment grade.

Emerging Policy-The inflation problem has not gone away

November 21, 2012

This week’s interest rate meetings in the developing world are highlighting that despite slower economic growth, inflation remains a problem for many countries. In some cases it could constrain  policymakers from cutting interest rates, or least from cutting as much as they would like.

Emerging Policy-Data vindicates doves but not all are cutting

November 14, 2012

Rate decisions last week in emerging markets well anticipated this week’s crop of economic data.

Emerging Policy-Hawkish Poland to join the doves

November 6, 2012

All eyes on Poland’s central bank this week to see if it will finally join the monetary easing trend underway in emerging markets. Chances are it will, with analysts polled by  Reuters unanimous in predicting a 25 basis point rate cut when the central bank meets on Wednesday. Data has been weak of late and signs are Poland will struggle even to achieve 2 percent GDP growth in 2013.

Emerging Policy-the big easing continues

October 17, 2012

The big easing continues. A major surprise today from the Bank of Thailand, which cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.  After repeated indications  from Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul that policy would stay unchanged for now, few had expected the bank to deliver its first rate cut since January.  But given the decision was not unanimous, it appears that Prasarn was overruled.  As in South Korea last week,  the need to boost domestic demand dictated the BoT’s decision. The Thai central bank  noted:

Emerging Policy: Rate cuts proliferate

October 11, 2012

Emerging market central banks have clearly taken to heart the recent IMF warning that there is “an alarmingly high risk”  of a deeper global growth slump.

Russia: a hawk among central bank doves?

August 7, 2012

This week has the potential to bring an interesting twist to emerging markets monetary policy. Peru, South Korea and Indonesia are likely to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday but there is a chance of a rate rise in Russia. A rise would stand out at a time when  central banks across the world are easing monetary policy as fast as possible.