Global Investing

German inflation to rescue euro economy?

March 5, 2012

With the ECB’s second cheap money flood in three months coursing through European banks and financial markets and the possibility at least of a further interest rate cut in offing, the relief in Europe’s austerity-wracked periphery is palpable. But what of the impact on the relatively buoyant “core” in Germany, the bloc’s largest economy and super-competitive export engine? Darren Williams at money managers Alliance Bernstein reckons  German inflation is being cooked up by this super-easy ECB money, coming as it does against a backdrop of  relatively brisk German credit growth and house price inflation there of some 5.5% last year which is “positively explosive by German standards”.

The haves and have-nots of the (energy) world

February 24, 2012

Nothing like an oil price spike to bring out the differences between the haves and have-nots of this world. The ones who have oil and those who don’t.

How Turkey cut interest rates but didn’t really

February 21, 2012

How do you cut interest rates without actually loosening monetary policy? Turkey’s central bank effectively did that today.

Turkey gearing up for rate cuts but not today

February 21, 2012

Could the Turkish central bank surprise markets again today?

Given its track record, few will dare to place firm bets on the outcome of today’s meeting but the general reckoning for now is that the bank will keep borrowing and lending rates steady and signal no immediate change to its weekly repo rate of 5.75 percent. With year-on-year inflation in the double digits, logic would dictate there is no scope for an easier monetary policy.

Brazil going Turkey? Not quite

February 13, 2012

Could Brazil be on the cusp of  adopting a Turkish-style monetary policy,  J.P. Morgan analysts ask.

Interest rates in emerging markets – - harder to cut

February 9, 2012

Emerging market central banks and economic data are sending a message — interest rates will stay on hold for now.  There are exceptions of course.

Without real sign of rate cuts, Indian equity rally still fragile

By Reuters Staff
February 6, 2012

Indian equities are among the best emerging markets performers this year, with the Mumbai market having posted its best January rise since 1994. That’s quite a reversal from last year’s 24 percent slump. The bet is faltering economic growth will force the central bank to cut interest rates from a crippling 8.5 percent. So, how safe is the rally?

Can Turkey confound the pessimists again? The numbers say no

February 3, 2012

Doomsayers have been prophesying Turkey’s economic boom to deflate into bust for many months now. The recent revival in positive investor sentiment worldwide ar has helped silence some voices. Others say it is a matter of time. 

India: the odd BRIC out

December 1, 2011

China moved to ease policy this week via a reserve ratio cut for banks, effectively starting to reverse a tightening cycle that’s been in place since last January. Later the same day, Brazil’s central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the third time in a row. Both countries are expected to continue easing policy as the global economic downturn bites. And last week Russia signalled that rate cuts could be on the way.

Good reasons for rupee’s fall but also for recovery

November 22, 2011

It’s been a pretty miserable 2011 for India and Tuesday’s collapse of the rupee to record lows beyond 52 per dollar will probably make things worse. Foreigners, facing a fast-falling currency, have pulled out $500 million from the stock market in just the last five trading sessions.   That means net inflows this year are less than $300 million, raising concerns that India will have trouble financing its current account gap.  The weaker currency also bodes ill for the country’s stubbornly high inflation.