Global Investing

Emerging policy-Down in Hungary; steady in Latin America

November 28, 2012

A mixed bag this week on emerging policy and one that shows the growing divergence between dovish central Europe and an increasingly hawkish (with some exceptions) Latin America.

Moody’s takes some pressure off Turkey

November 21, 2012

Moody’s disappointed a lot of folks this week when it failed to raise Turkey’s credit rating to investment grade.

Emerging Policy-The inflation problem has not gone away

November 21, 2012

This week’s interest rate meetings in the developing world are highlighting that despite slower economic growth, inflation remains a problem for many countries. In some cases it could constrain  policymakers from cutting interest rates, or least from cutting as much as they would like.

Emerging Policy-Data vindicates doves but not all are cutting

November 14, 2012

Rate decisions last week in emerging markets well anticipated this week’s crop of economic data.

Emerging Policy-Hawkish Poland to join the doves

November 6, 2012

All eyes on Poland’s central bank this week to see if it will finally join the monetary easing trend underway in emerging markets. Chances are it will, with analysts polled by  Reuters unanimous in predicting a 25 basis point rate cut when the central bank meets on Wednesday. Data has been weak of late and signs are Poland will struggle even to achieve 2 percent GDP growth in 2013.

Pricing ‘new brooms’ at White House and Fed

October 24, 2012

With less than two weeks left to the U.S. presidential elections and all three televised debates done and dusted, investors are at last squaring up to the detailed financial market impact of the event itself and the column inches in newsprint and research reports lengthen by the day.

Emerging Policy-the big easing continues

October 17, 2012

The big easing continues. A major surprise today from the Bank of Thailand, which cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.  After repeated indications  from Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul that policy would stay unchanged for now, few had expected the bank to deliver its first rate cut since January.  But given the decision was not unanimous, it appears that Prasarn was overruled.  As in South Korea last week,  the need to boost domestic demand dictated the BoT’s decision. The Thai central bank  noted:

Emerging Policy: Rate cuts proliferate

October 11, 2012

Emerging market central banks have clearly taken to heart the recent IMF warning that there is “an alarmingly high risk”  of a deeper global growth slump.

Is the rouble overhyped?

October 4, 2012

For many months now the Russian rouble has been everyone’s favourite currency. Thanks to all the interest it rose 4 percent against the dollar during the July-September quarter. How long can the love affair last?

This week in EM, expect more doves

September 24, 2012

With the U.S. Fed having cranked up its printing presses, there seems little to stop emerging central banks from extending their own rate cut campaigns this week.