Global Investing

How to Spend It – for sovereign wealth funds

As dust settles and investor morale improves, sovereign wealth funds are slowly coming back to the market.


But they are not going to simply repeat what they’ve done in the past few years — hunting bargains in everything from property to banks. They are likely to carefully balance out the temptation for higher returns and the need to invest in strategic assets which benefit their own economies.

The so-called “south-south” trade is set to gather pace, providing much-needed capital inflows to emerging markets.

Javier Santiso, chief development economist of the OECD Development Centre, says in a book published late last year that should sovereign wealth funds allocate 10 percent of their portfoilo to other emerging and developing economies, this could generate inflows of $1.4 trillion.

Domestic investment — previously a taboo during the oil-fuelled inflation boom — is also increasing. RAKIA, the SWF of the emirate of Ras al-Khaimah in the UAE, is offering easier financing terms to local real estate companies to help them weather the downturn.

from Funds Hub:

Watch Pi Capital CEO David Giampaolo give his investment outlook

Giampaolo was speaking today at the London leg of the Reuters Hedge Fund and Private Equity Summit.

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It’s 2 o’clock. Let’s buy shares

It’s 2 o’clock. You’ve had your lunch. Now what should you do?

Buy shares, if you follow what U.S. bank Goldman Sachs has found from trading patterns among major U.S. equity indices and ETFs.

According to Goldman’s analysis, the S&P 500 index has tended to do substantially better during the last two hours of trading.

Since the start of 2008, the index increased by an average of 11 bps per day between 2pm and 4pm. In contrast, between 9:30am and 2pm, it declined by an average of 24 bps per day. This translates into a cumulative return of 35% for holding the S&P index between 2pm and 4pm versus -54% for holding it between 9:30am and 2pm.

Reuters Funds Summit: Kingdom for a horse

Anyone expecting investors to start galloping back into riskier assets in a rush might have something of a wait, according to Kathleen Hughes, who runs money funds for JPMorgan Asset Management in Europe. They are more likely to wander back in.

“Risk appetite returns in stages. It leaves on a horse but comes back on foot,”  she rather neatly told a Reuters funds summit being held in Luxembourg.

There are nonetheless some signs around that show leather is getting some wear. Fund trackers EPFR Global says that although overall fund flows fell during the second week of March, there were some signs of growing risk appetite. Commodities, technology and energy sector funds as well as global emerging market equity and non-Japan Asia funds all saw net inflows.

Whoops!

Just how much have world stocks suffered in the past year or so? Try this. According to the World Federation of Exchanges, the market capitalisation of global stock markets has halved. It was $63 trillion in October 2007. At the end of January this year it was only $31 trillion.

 

It has all been more furious than most people can recall as well. When the internet-stock bubble burst at the beginning of this decade, MSCI’s all-country world stock index lost around 51 percent of its value from peak to trough. In the latest drop, the index fell 58 percent from an all-time high in November 2007 to a new cycle low yesterday.

 

And it has been fast. The internet-stock bubble decline took slightly more than 30 months. The current fall has taken only 16 months.

Zeitgeist check

Some more bits and bobs to capture the current mood among investors.

–  So far, 2009 is worse than 2008 for stock investors. MSCI‘s main world index is down around 17 percent in January and February.  A year ago, it had lost around 8 percent.

– Eastern and central Europe are the new worries because of bank exposure to troubled economies.  ”The travails in the east, like the vampires of folklore, are sucking the lifeblood from European markets and investor sentiment,” State Street suggests.

– Cross-border flows into the euro zone hit record lows in February,  the same firm says.

Smell the money in Asia

Asia is still the place to be to make big bucks.

That’s the upbeat message from Baring Asset Management, which is betting on Asia to deliver some of the best returns during a recovery.  The only question is when’s the recovery coming?

“The market may still have further to fall but the evidence suggests that when a recovery does happen, Asia’s equity market rally is likely to outstrip many other markets around the world, particulary the developed markets,” Baring’s head of Asian multi-asset Khiem Do says.

Barings based its research on its analysis of MSCI data. The research shows that the 18 rallies (a rise of 20 percent from the bottom to the next turn in the market) seen in Asian markets since Dec. 1987, when MSCI launched Asian indices, produced on average, returns of 43 percent in U.S. dollar terms in six months.

Please invest, please

Hardly suprising that investment funds want their clients to cough up some money. It is, after all, how they get paid. So an appeal to pension funds from UBS Global Asset Management to stop sitting on the fence is not entirely pro bono. Nonetheless, a new note from the firm that trustees are actually risking things by hanging on to large cash reserves is worth a run through.

First, it says, there is the danger that they will lose out on any market recovery. UBS reckons stocks are well priced with high expected returns. It did not say so, but people sitting on cash in late November to early January missed a more than 25 percent rally in world stocks.

Second, UBS reckons hanging on to cash is not a good move given the amount of higher-yielding low-risk investments currently available. Some investment grade corporate bonds are trading at 10 percent-plus yields.

Global government-backed bonds surging

Government-backed lending programs around the world have sparked a revival in financial and corporate borrowing — for now. Worldwide sales of corporate bonds rose to $251 billion in January, the highest level since May 2008, marking the first signs of a thaw after a long global capital markets winter. The following are the global sales totals and a list of the biggest borrowers, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Read the full story here.

Top Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program
(TLGP) Issuers
Ranking Issuer Name Proceeds (USD) Market Share 1 BANK OF AMERICA CORP 32,628,557,500 23% 2 GENERAL ELECTRIC CAPITAL CORP 21,045,031,500 15% 3 CITI 17,726,150,000 12% 4 JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 16,176,202,500 11% 5 MORGAN STANLEY 14,324,084,000 10% 6 GOLDMAN SACHS 13,558,528,800 9% 7 WELLS FARGO & CO 5,996,490,000 4% 8 AMERICAN EXPRESS BANK FSB 5,247,235,000 4% 9 REGIONS BANK 3,497,682,500 2% 10 PNC FUNDING CORP 2,896,760,000 2% 11 SUNTRUST BANK 2,743,940,000 2% 12 HSBC USA INC 2,673,895,750 2% 13 JOHN DEERE CAPITAL CORP 1,995,380,000 1% 14 SOVEREIGN BANCORP INC 1,597,932,500 1% 15 KEYCORP 1,499,050,000 1% 16 NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP INC 601,626,380 0% 17 ZIONS BANCORPORATION 254,892,000 0%


Corporate and Government Guaranteed Debt – Global Month Global Corporate Debt US Guaranteed Debt (TLGP) International Guarenteed Debt Total January 2007 317,575.6 317,575.6 February 2007 254,769.1 254,769.1 March 2007 315,515.9 315,515.9 April 2007 197,842.8 197,842.8 May 2007 336,817.1 336,817.1 June 2007 320,097.3 320,097.3 July 2007 123,559.2 123,559.2 August 2007 135,911.7 135,911.7 September 2007 221,778.5 221,778.5 October 2007 260,642.5 260,642.5 November 2007 156,442.8 156,442.8 December 2007 117,873.8 117,873.8 January 2008 203,028.2 203,028.2 February 2008 155,728.7 155,728.7 March 2008 147,390.8 147,390.8 April 2008 303,897.8 303,897.8 May 2008 357,243.5 357,243.5 June 2008 219,317.5 219,317.5 July 2008 133,174.8 133,174.8 August 2008 125,650.0 125,650.0 September 2008 106,030.8 106,030.8 October 2008 68,402.9 4,869.0 73,271.9 November 2008 116,849.8 20,079.9 9,955.9 146,885.6 December 2008 102,066.7 87,768.5 4,050.5 193,885.7 January 2009 251,013.0 46,493.8 19,665.9 317,172.7

Who gets the last laugh?

Public critisicm may be heating up against banking executives being rewarded with huge bonuses despite taking too much risk (especially ex Merill Lynch head John Thain who requested a bonus and spent $1,405 on a garbage pail during a $1.22 million renovation of his office).

However, there are smaller fish who are being rewarded after doing something similar — taking too much risk and choosing the wrong bank in which to put their deposit. We’re talking about those who deposited in the collapsed Icelandic bank Landsbanki.

Around 300,000 British savers had accounts worth some 4 billion pounds in Landsbanki’s online savings provider Icesave, which offered competitive interest rates of up to 7-plus percent.