Global Investing

from MacroScope:

Give me liberty and give me cash!

June 22, 2011

Come back Mr Fukuyama, all is forgiven.

In his 1992 book "The End of History and the Last Man", American political scientist Francis Fukuyama famously argued that all states were moving inexorably towards liberal democracy. His thesis that democracy is the pinnacle of political evolution has since been challenged by the violent eruption of radical Islam as well as the economic success of authoritarian countries such as China and Russia.

Inside the Reuters investment polls

February 1, 2011

The headline news from our Reuters asset allocation polls this month was that not much has changed from December in terms of overall investment positioning, but that there was a decided shift from emerging markets and European stocks to North America.

from MacroScope:

What emerging animal are you?

November 15, 2010

Ever since Goldman Sach's Jim O'Neill came up with the idea of BRICs as an investment universe, competitors have been indulging in a global game of acronyms. Why not add Korea to Brazil, Russia, India and China and get a proper BRICK? Or include South Africa, as it wants, to properly upper case the "s" - BRICS or BRICKS?

Clever Fed

November 4, 2010

Proof  that a little surprise can be quite big.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on more quantitative easing there were three possible outcomes that  could have threatened what is becoming a strong global equity rally. In short:

Investors love those emerging markets

October 28, 2010

No question that investors are in the throes of passion over emerging markets. The latest Reuters asset allocation polls show investors pouring money into Asian and Latin American stocks in October to the detriment of U.S. and euro zone equities. Exposure to equities in emerging Europe, Asia ex-Japan, Latin America and Africa/Middle East rose to 15.6 percent of a typical stock portfolio from 14.3 percent a month earlier.

from Summit Notebook:

Is emerging Europe out of the woods yet?

By Michael Winfrey
October 8, 2010

A surge in portfolio inflows is flooding into emerging central Europe, although yield-hungry investors are picking solid HUNGARY IMF/MATOLCSYpolicy and higher growth over countries still struggling to put the crisis behind them.

from Jeremy Gaunt:

And the investor survey says…

August 31, 2010

Reuters asset allocation polls for August are out. They show very little change from July, which suggests investors are still cautious and uncertain about what is happening.

Brazil-style tax may not work for South Africa

August 3, 2010

Traders in South African securities woke to a nasty surprise this morning — media reports that the ruling ANC party is considering slapping a tax on “short-term” financial market flows, possibly similar to the 2 percent tax Brazil brought in last October.  Luckily for them,  it may not happen.

Equities — an ‘even years’ curse?

June 17, 2010

Are global equity markets under an ‘Even Years Curse’ that sees them underperform bonds in even-numbered years but beat fixed-income returns in odd-numbered ones? After some number-crunching, Fidelity International’s’ director of asset allocation Trevor Greetham suspects so.

What fund managers think

June 16, 2010

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch’s monthly poll of around 200 fund managers had a few nuggets in the June version, aside from the usual mood-taking.