Last weekend’s interim deal between Iran and world powers opens up an opportunity for a revitalised Iran to use its economic influence to advance its interests, and some other countries in the region should benefit.
If negotiators reach a comprehensive agreement that lifts sanctions, Iran will strengthen its position as an economic power, a prospect that Israel and the Arab monarchies do not welcome, but that may bode well for Turkish growth and a relief of broader Middle East tensions, according to Noah Capital Markets strategist Emad Mostaque.
Comparing an Iran unencumbered by sanctions to a “Brazil of the Middle East,” Mostaque says the isolated country’s natural resources, educated populace, and industrial capacity mean it will see significant foreign investment if the spectre of a war with the West were to disappear completely:
This pick-up in foreign investment and real growth is the real way that Iran is looking to expand its influence and power in the region, not through nuclear weapons
But the United States’ traditional allies in the Middle East view Iran’s gain as their loss – to Israel, Iran is an existential threat, while Saudi Arabia believes Iran seeks to foment unrest among the Gulf’s restive Shi’ite minority.