Spread betters have drastically cut their expectations of a U.S. or Israeli air strike on Iran since Barack Obama’s re-election earlier this month.
Intrade, a Dublin-based online exchange, is showing 20 percent of its clients seeing a strike by June 2013, and 33 percent by Dec 2013.
Those expectations are not tiny, but they are down sharply from 35 and 50 percent, respectively, just before the election.
Analysts think elections in Israel in January – expected to result in victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – and Iran in June also cut the chances of Israel attacking Iran any time soon.
According to Alastair Newton, political risk analyst at Nomura:
Washington and European capitals will not only look to re-engage Tehran at the negotiating table early in the New Year - a potential brake on military action – but also bring pressure to bear on Mr Netanyahu to hold fire at least until after Iran’s presidential election.