Global Investing

from UK News:

Walking the risk-reward tightrope in Iraq

Luke Baker

May 1, 2009 10:35 EDT

It's fair to say that investing in Iraq is not for the faint-hearted.

Just last week more than 200 people were killed in suicide bombings across the country, while kidnapping and armed assault remain commonplace.

That said, more than 600 delegates still turned up to the Invest Iraq 2009 conference held in London this week, eager to find out what opportunities there might be in the oil, construction, petrochemicals, engineering, agriculture, transport and tourism industries, to name a few.

From City of London bankers to executives from Shell and Chevron, bosses from energy service companies and airport construction firms, management training specialists and security advisers, they were all there, milling around a west London hotel in their smartest suits, seeing what business they might be able to do.

There were plenty of Iraqis too. Mostly businessmen with operations outside the country -- in Lebanon, Jordan or Dubai -- and now looking to step up investment in their homeland.

Some of them, perhaps feeling more familiar with the lay of the land than Western investors, had already made sizeable moves into Iraq, but judging from the questions they were putting to the Iraqi officials speaking at the conference, they were concerned about a lack of legal direction from the government.

One Iraqi was particularly illustrative of the potential pitfalls that can befall investors.

Investing in Iraq

Carolyn Cohn

Apr 28, 2009 11:21 EDT

Ministers from Iraq, from prime minister Nuri al-Maliki down, are in London on Thursday to attract investment into the country. Could Iraq be one of the few investment regions decoupled from the global economic cycle?

It was having a war while the rest of the world was enjoying economic boom. As well as signs of lessening violence now and the promised withdrawal of U.S. combat troops by August 2010, it does have oil.

The country has a $2.7 billion bond maturing in 2028, has written off much of its debt with the Paris Club and others, and is planning government bonds totalling $5 billion.

As one fund manager told me: “Iraq is a less correlated asset, it doesn’t have much debt and its bond is holding up reasonably well.” But he still added, “the political risk is the thing that makes Iraq stand out negatively from other credits”.

Will western oil companies win big in Iraq?

Tom Bergin

Jul 23, 2008 08:09 EDT

Industry analysts and executives are sceptical a planned opening of the war-torn country’s oil industry to foreign investment will bring big profits for the Western Oil Majors, or boost output as much as hoped.

While many have lined up to register to bid for Iraqi oil deals, actual bidders may be thinner on the ground and deals may take longer to conclude than the government plans.

John Mitchell, an energy specialist at the Royal Institute of International Affairs said recent rises in Iraqi production to around 2.3 million barrels per day were largely due to the improving security situation. If Iraq wants to make big jumps from here on, it will need to invest a lot of money in, and apply a lot of technology to, its oilfields.

A delay on the involvement of foreign oil companies could make it harder for Iraq to meet its ambitious output growth targets.

“If the invasion was about oil, let the record show it has been more botched than even its toughest critics claim. Iraqi oil production went into steep decline after the war, and has only recovered to Saddam-era levels on a consistent basis this year,” Raad Alkadiri, Senior Director in the Markets and Country Strategies practice, at industry consultants PFC Energy said in a note to clients.