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May 1st, 2009

Walking the risk-reward tightrope in Iraq

Posted by: Luke Baker

It's fair to say that investing in Iraq is not for the faint-hearted.

Just last week more than 200 people were killed in suicide bombings across the country, while kidnapping and armed assault remain commonplace.

That said, more than 600 delegates still turned up to the Invest Iraq 2009 conference held in London this week, eager to find out what opportunities there might be in the oil, construction, petrochemicals, engineering, agriculture, transport and tourism industries, to name a few.

From City of London bankers to executives from Shell and Chevron, bosses from energy service companies and airport construction firms, management training specialists and security advisers, they were all there, milling around a west London hotel in their smartest suits, seeing what business they might be able to do.

There were plenty of Iraqis too. Mostly businessmen with operations outside the country -- in Lebanon, Jordan or Dubai -- and now looking to step up investment in their homeland.

Some of them, perhaps feeling more familiar with the lay of the land than Western investors, had already made sizeable moves into Iraq, but judging from the questions they were putting to the Iraqi officials speaking at the conference, they were concerned about a lack of legal direction from the government.

One Iraqi was particularly illustrative of the potential pitfalls that can befall investors.

During a seminar on Iraq's new investment law, which is supposed to make it quicker and easier to pour money into the country, he stood up to ask a question. Dressed in a smart pinstripe suit, he looked every part the international entrepreneur as he grabbed the mircophone.

"I am worried," he said, his concern audible in his voice. "I have $400 million invested in Iraq. I have built several hotels already and I am just completing the construction of a new 400-room, five-star hotel in Kerbala," he said, referring to a religious city in southern Iraq that is a popular destination for religious tourism.

"I am worried," he continued, "because I do not yet have planning permission for any of the buildings."

There was silence in the room as the audience digested just how out on a limb he was.

"Have you asked for it?" a government representative on the panel asked.

"Yes," said the man. "I asked three years ago and I keep asking but I have heard nothing."

After a pause the government official mumbled something about the issue being tackled: "This is something that regional authorities should be looking at. They need to speed up the process," he said, before moving on to the next question.

The businessman did not look particularly reassured as he sat back down.

April 28th, 2009

Investing in Iraq

Posted by: Carolyn Cohn

Ministers from Iraq, from prime minister Nuri al-Maliki down, are in London on Thursday to attract investment into the country. Could Iraq be one of the few investment regions decoupled from the global economic cycle?

It was having a war while the rest of the world was enjoying economic boom. As well as signs of lessening violence now and the promised withdrawal of U.S. combat troops by August 2010, it does have oil.

The country has a $2.7 billion bond maturing in 2028, has written off much of its debt with the Paris Club and others, and is planning government bonds totalling $5 billion.

As one fund manager told me: “Iraq is a less correlated asset, it doesn’t have much debt and its bond is holding up reasonably well.” But he still added, “the political risk is the thing that makes Iraq stand out negatively from other credits”.

July 23rd, 2008

Will western oil companies win big in Iraq?

Posted by: Tom Bergin

Industry analysts and executives are sceptical a planned opening of the war-torn country’s oil industry to foreign investment will bring big profits for the Western Oil Majors, or boost output as much as hoped.

While many have lined up to register to bid for Iraqi oil deals, actual bidders may be thinner on the ground and deals may take longer to conclude than the government plans.

John Mitchell, an energy specialist at the Royal Institute of International Affairs said recent rises in Iraqi production to around 2.3 million barrels per day were largely due to the improving security situation. If Iraq wants to make big jumps from here on, it will need to invest a lot of money in, and apply a lot of technology to, its oilfields.

A delay on the involvement of foreign oil companies could make it harder for Iraq to meet its ambitious output growth targets.

“If the invasion was about oil, let the record show it has been more botched than even its toughest critics claim. Iraqi oil production went into steep decline after the war, and has only recovered to Saddam-era levels on a consistent basis this year,” Raad Alkadiri, Senior Director in the Markets and Country Strategies practice, at industry consultants PFC Energy said in a note to clients.