It’s always hard to calculate how to factor political risk into investment decisions, it can feel a bit like taking a punt.

That may be why analysts are starting to look at the bets on Intrade, a Dublin-based online exchange, to measure market expectations of issues like the chances of a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran.

Richard Fox, head of Middle East and Africa sovereigns at ratings agency Fitch, told a seminar last week that Intrade contracts show fears are rising of such a strike.

Expectations of a strike at the end of the third quarter had soared to more than 40 percent, compared with under 20 percent only a month before.

That heightened concern has levelled off a bit since then, with expectations of a strike at the end of Q3 currently at 30 percent. But expectations of a strike by the end of the fourth quarter remain at 39 percent.