What a half-month it has been for bond issuance! As we wrote here, many borrowers — corporate and sovereign; from emerging markets and developed — have seen this period as a last-chance saloon of sorts to raise money on global capital markets before the Fed starts to cut off the supply of free cash.
But the month so far has been different not only in the sheer volume of supply but also for the fact that issuance by governments of developing countries has surpassed emerging corporate bond sales. That’s something that hasn’t happened for a long time.
By the end of last week, sovereign issuance for September had hit $13.5 billion, more than any other month this year and a quarter of the total 2013 sovereign issuance so far, according to analysts at JPMorgan. In comparison, sovereign issuance historically averages $2.2 billion a month, rising to $5 billion every September following the summer lull. Issuers were Russia with $7 billion, South Africa and Romania with $2 billion each; while South Korea and Indonesia raised $1 billion and $1.5 billion respectively. JPM writes:
While we had anticipated a pick-up of supply in September, the pace of sovereign issuance so far is higher than any previous September and bears more resemblance to the pace often exhibited in the first quarter.
In contrast, corporates have priced 11 deals this month totaling $5.5 billion and that’s well below the levels seen in the first two weeks of September 2012, says David Spegel, head of emerging debt at ING Investment Management: