Global Investing

Addicted to Credit

The Federal Reserve’s expansionist monetary policies are the equivalent of giving an alcoholic another drink or the heroin addict another fix, according to Dr Marc Faber, also known as Dr Doom, and a fierce critic of Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke.

“This is not solving the problem – it is just treating the symptoms,” he said, speaking at the CFA Institute’s European Investment Conference in Frankfurt on Thursday.

Faber blames Greenspan’s decision to hold interest rates at artificially low levels for precipitating the housing bubble and sees Bernanke repeating the mistake in the current crisis. “The Fed seems to ignore the fact that one of the causes of this crisis was the amount of leverage in the system. This is a credit-addicted economy.”

He sees central bankers as having become hostage to inflated asset markets and questioned how sustainable the next boom would be given that it was simply storing up more debt. Total US debt to GDP is now at 375 percent, without including the contingent liabilities from Medicare and Medicaid. Faber sees this having serious implications for inflation.

“When the Fed should be increasing rates, interest payments on government debt will balloon. In five years’ time some 30-40 percent of US tax revenues will go on servicing that debt,” he said. “Where will they get that money? They will have to print it.”

from MacroScope:

Tale of two SWFs

As the world moves closer to the end of the credit crisis, sovereign wealth funds around the world are experiencing mixed fortunes.

Good news comes from Singapore's SWF Temasek, which springs back into gains with its portfolio climbing 32 percent between April to end-July after a 30 percent loss in the year to end-March.

Announcing its annual performance report (which should please the country's taxidrivers), Temasek said it is open to investing in financials and resources in the long term and it has bought stakes in South Korea's ENK, cylinder suppliers, and Brazil's oilfield services firm San Antonio.

from MacroScope:

Sovereign wealth tie-ups

Sovereign wealth funds are increasingly working in concert to make joint strategic investments.

China, Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait are among those which have recently formed investment partnerships with each other.

Why are they doing this? First of all, by linking up capital and resouces, SWFs can leverage up, optimise local knowledge, spread risks and maximise returns.

No black tulip bulbs, no black swans

The world has experienced many crises in the past.


In 1636, during the Dutch Tulip Bulb Bubble, the quest for a perfect black bulb had inflated the price of a black bulb by many hundreds. In a different crisis in 1866, a London wholesale bank Overend, Gurney & Co collapsed with a massive debt, after expanding its investment portfolio beyond its means.

What is common in these events and the present crisis is that investors borrowed and levered themselves, and the eventual bubble burst prompted massive deleveraging and contagion, according to Julian Chillingworth, chief investment officer at London-based asset management firm Rathbones (established in 1742 – 22 years after the South Sea Bubble).

“It’s greed, it’s fear and it’s leverage,” Chillingworth told a group of journalists at a breakfast briefing. He says all the risky and highly leveraged assets were dressed up with “pseudo finance” and the likelihood of contagion and volatility was characterised as a “black swan” event – originally a metaphor for something that could not exist.