Global Investing

MSCI, the index provider used by leading investors across the world, has decided it needs a name change in Greater China. In a news release this morning the firm (which is no longer owned by Morgan Stanley, the MS in its title) said its Chinese business would henceforth be branded as  MSCI 明晟.

When I tweeted this @reutersJeremyG, one wag suggested  this meant "MSCI small-ladder-bigger-ladder-books-on-a-picnic-table", which is what it indeed looks like to an untrained eye (like mine).  But it is actually Ming Sheng, which  apparently is supposed to symbolise "brightness and transparency, prosperity and splendour".

That might sound a little flowery for an index provider, but is arguably apt given the role such indices have in opening up markets to investment.

The key point, however, is that MSCI decided it needed a Chinese business name. Henry Fernandez, MSCI's chairman and chief executive officer, said that as his business had grown in China, so it had become increasingly important to have local branding.

So we have MSCI Bright Splendour, or something like that.  Parlour game time: What would other companies be?

Depending on how you look at it, August may not have been as bad a month for stocks as advertised. For the month as a whole, the MSCI all-country world stock index  lost more than 7.5 percent.  This was the worst performance since May last year, and the worst August since 1998.

But if you had bought in at the low on August 9, you would have gained  healthy 8.5 percent or so.

In a similar vein, much is made of the fact that the S&P 500 index  ended 2009 below the level it started 2000, in other words, took a loss in the decade.

Proof  that a little surprise can be quite big.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on more quantitative easing there were three possible outcomes that  could have threatened what is becoming a strong global equity rally. In short:

– Meeting expectations could have been seen as boring, leading to a sell off

– Not meeting expectations could have been seen as widely disappointing, leading to a sell off

Emerging market stocks have been a big favourite among investment managers this year, based on the view that long-term growth patterns remain in place despite the wobbles in developed economies. But it has not been an easy ride. MSCI’s emerging market stocks index has been in an out of positive territory for much of the year.  It has just moved back into the black after a rally of  more than 16  percent since late May.

No, not in the way you think. Tuesday marked the one-year anniversary of world stocks hitting what appears to be their post-financial crisis low. The index was the MSCI all-country world index. The low was hit on March 9, 2009.

At the time, many investors reckoned their world was collapsing. Stocks had fallen close to 60 percent in a little more than 16 months. But the low proved to be the start of a remarkable rally that brought the index back up 80 percent until January this year.

All is not well on equity markets at the moment, given worries about European debt, the end of special central bank liquidity programmes and questions about the sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery.  The MSCI index seems to be having a hard time staying in positive territory this year.

It was down, down, down in 2008 and up, up , up in 2009. So what will 2010 bring?

Should emerging market investors set aside their spreadsheets and crack open a cold one?

Their markets have zoomed higher from the March lows, with MSCI’s emerging markets stock index up 81 percent. Are they heading for a fall? Will investors soon be crying in their beer? And if so what kind?

Broker Auerbach Grayson held a rooftop fete this week showcasing emerging market versus developed market beers, with nary a Yankee brew in sight.

World stocks are up 22 percent since March 9 and a sell-off earlier this week was unable to break the trend.

“Like the old saying ‘Fool me once, shame on you, fool me three times, shame on me’, we think it’s OK to investors to be cautious, but not dismissive… We believe there is a good chance that we saw the low for this bear market in early March,” says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist from the S&P Equity Research, in the Investment Policy Committee note.

The Comittee’s end-2009 targets are: 850 for the S&P 500 index and 675 for MSCI emerging market index.

Another month and another Reuters asset allocation poll. This time saw investors in United States, Europe and Japan lifting their equity holdings and cutting back slightly on bonds.  Fits with what has been happening on global financial markets, where MSCI’s main world stock index is heading for its best month in at least six years.

So the big question is what happens now. Is this a bear market bounce that will soon dissipate?  Or is it the start of something bullish that will last?

Some more bits and bobs to capture the current mood among investors.

–  So far, 2009 is worse than 2008 for stock investors. MSCI‘s main world index is down around 17 percent in January and February.  A year ago, it had lost around 8 percent.

– Eastern and central Europe are the new worries because of bank exposure to troubled economies.  ”The travails in the east, like the vampires of folklore, are sucking the lifeblood from European markets and investor sentiment,” State Street suggests.

– Cross-border flows into the euro zone hit record lows in February,  the same firm says.