Dubai has sufficient superlatives – record-setting landmarks unique in their size, cost or concept -- to last it for the next decade – so enough already, says Deyaar CEO Markus Giebel.

“I endorse having the tallest building in the world, the first seven-star hotel in the world, the palm,” he says. “What I don’t endorse are attempts to now outdo these superlatives…they are going to last us the next 10 to 15 years.”

Dubai is home -- amongst other attractions -- to the world's largest indoor ski slope, the world's tallest tower, and the world's first, albeit self-rated, seven-star hotel that also sports its own Rolls Royce fleet and helicopter landing platform. The global financial crisis brought a real estate boom in the emirate to a screeching halt, leading to a raft of new, hugely ambitious projects  -- including a 1-km high tower and the world's largest mall -- to be shelved or delayed.

By Jason Benham

It’s the property face of the Gulf’s business and tourist hub and the developer of palm-shaped islands visible from space - so Dubai will simply not allow property firm Nakheel to default on its huge $3.5 billion Islamic bonds which mature in December.

Just think of the bad publicity it would bring to the region, and there’s already been plenty of that. Another kick in the teeth is certainly not what Dubai needs. Plenty of critics have joined the ‘bash Dubai” bandwagon and several more are set to join the ranks at some stage. 

But any default would mark a failure for Dubai World, the state-owned conglomerate, and a castrophe for Dubai’s government, which has ploughed billions of dollars over recent years into making Dubai what it is today.

That leaves two more options - repayment or restructuring.”I would lean towards the repayment scenario,” said Fahd Iqbal, GCC strategist at EFG-Hermes in Dubai.”It would send a better signal to the market, and ultimately, I don’t think Dubai’s government has serious financial restraints since it should have recourse to the federal government. Dubai wants to avoid bad publicity and Nakheel is one of the key cornerstones of the Dubai story.”

A restructuring is also a possibility but appears to come second to a repayment, with some bankers and analysts saying the window of opportunity to restructure is diminishing.

But even in the likelihood of a repayment, Dubai has not done itself any favours by failing to address a lack of information about what will happen, and that only leads to more speculation and uncertainty.

A lack of clarity and transparency in the emirate’s property sector continues to weigh on investors’ minds. And it’s not just Nakheel’s bonds that are cause for concern. The market remains hungry for news on the planned merger of Dubai’s Emaar Properties and three local firms; the restructuring of troubled mortgage lenders Amlak and Tamweel and more clarity on property ownership.

Until then, most prospective Dubai investors are happy to look, but won’t touch.

By Jason Benham

Glitzy Dubai's property market is in trouble, there's no doubt about that. Just take a look at the hundreds of motionless cranes, unfinished projects and the expats who are leaving in droves as they lose their jobs.

And prices and rents which soared during a six-year boom have crashed since late last year. According to one resident who recently moved in the City, it now costs 150,000 dirhams to rent a three-bedroom flat on the Palm, a man-made island off the coast of the emirate, around the same it would have cost to rent a one-bedroom appartment there a year ago.

It's not just the global downturn thats the concern for Dubai's once-booming property market, but also the lack of transparency and need for greater regulation. And that's what's going to keep the western investor from splashing the cash.

Investors looking at Dubai's real estate sector are a different breed. They are no longer looking to snap up properties in the hope of making a quick buck. They are more conservative with a longer term outlook.

"RERA (the Real Estate Regulatory Authority) has been trying to introduce regulation to minimise the impact of speculative investors," said Andrew White, head of Middle East operations at UK-based investor Kenmore property Group.

"But some have said this is like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted because the downturn has more or less wiped these out anyway." So, a little too late perhaps ? And what about the recently announced planned merger of Emaar Properties, builder of the world's tallest tower, with
three other local property firms?

Well, so far no one really knows. Simply put, there has been little in the way of information about this.

"If you look at Emaar and the potential merger, there is little financial clarity on how this will proceed and that is going to worry investors," said Bobby Sarkar, analyst at Al Mal Capital. "The U.S. and European markets have high levels of clarity in terms of regulation, but that isn't the case here."
 
There is no doubt however that the government is trying to improve regulation and transparency. Several wins for the property market over the last year include the introduction of a monthly rental index and new laws for property maintenance, not to forget the continuing effort to crack down on corruption.

But there is a long way to go and more is needed for Dubai to come close to rivalling mature markets such as the UK and U.S. which offer the longer-term investor the transparency they crave.

The old adage - there is no better time to go back to school than during a recession - seems to ring true for real estate investments as well.

With recession-wary workers and rising international interest driving up university applications, student home operators in the UK are enjoying near 100 percent occupancies, with rents predicted to go up 10 percent this year.

In contrast, other property classes in the UK such as offices, shopping malls and factories have seen values plunge a startling 45 percent since mid-2007. And the recession means rents are forecast to fall as much as 15 percent this year as landlords face the rising threat of tenant defaults.

As I wrote earlier, investors such as pension funds that were burnt by traditional commercial assets are now turning to the student accommodation market for the projected growth and steady returns other parts of the market aren’t delivering.

Students pack up their dorm room after graduating from university in the city of Xian, Shaanxi Province July 3, 2004. REUTERS/China Photos WC/FA

Student homes specialists King Sturge estimates that average rents jumped 7 to 10 percent annually in the last five years and can go up 10 percent this year, although it sees the yearly increase moderating to 5-7 percent for the next few years with new entrants to the market.

Branded student housing can be very pricey and the best stuff are a far cry from crowded, slum-like dorms that some of the world’s students have to put up with: high-end versions in London that offer en-suite bathrooms, flat-screen TVs and laundry services cost up to 300 pounds a week.

With the belt-tightening that comes with a recession, parents may groan about the higher costs of student housing for their university-bound offspring.

But operators expect there will be those who are still willing stump up the cash, if only to ensure their children make it for classes.

“First year students usually can’t find housemates to rent with, and there is no guarantee the flat will be near to school,” says Gabriel Behr of the University Partnerships Programme, a student homes operator owned by funds under Barclays Private Equity, which is developing over 700 new rooms for King’s College London.

“Are parents willing to stick their kids somewhere five miles away from class?” he asked me.

With property markets stabilising and hopes that the worst of the financial crisis is behind us, Europe's banks are now looking to resolve their next biggest problem: 225 billion pounds of loans backed by UK commercial property.

As Sinead Cruise and I wrote earlier today, banks are now organising to sort through this massive debt pile, picking the good from the bad, foreclosing on properties and selling off what they can.

"Lenders have long turned a blind eye to breaches of covenants as long as they met interest demands by collecting rents. But they are now abandoning this softly-softly approach as the British economy worsens, planning foreclosures on a scale not yet seen in this cycle."

"Until now, banks have only repossessed as a last resort because they feared they would be unable to sell assets in the debt-starved investment market. But a flurry of fund launches and opportunistic rights issues has ratcheted up competition among buyers in the sector, stoking hopes for less costly exits."

Real-estate investors are lining up for a rush of deals in the third and fourth quarters of the year, as many banks are waiting for the fine details of the government's asset insurance scheme, due to be published in July, before they make final decisions on what to do with their loan books.

The consequences are big for the banks and serious for the British economy. Industry experts say that without a clear-out of their exposure to property banks are unlikely to start lending again on a large scale.

Dubai’s deepening real estate slump has brought unexpected benefits to its time-poor urban residents.

Speaking at the Global Islamic Financing Summit, Dr. Humayon Dar, CEO of Shariah-compliant consultancy BMB Islamic, said Dubai was a much nicer place to live now that the immature infrastructure system was not overwhelmed with construction traffic and armies of property speculators.

“When you got to Dubai you will find that right now, traffic is actually much less but people like me like it because I used to be stuck in that traffic all the time,” Dar said, eyes agleam. ”But now, going from A to B is so fun - I like it.”

The desert city - famed for its dramatic skyline and commonly referred to as the Gulf’s biggest building site - is reeling from a global meltdown in demand for its unique brand of luxury real estate.  Dozens of development projects worth billions of dollars have been axed, threatening the livelihood of thousands of construction workers and their families.

But those banking on a rapid rally in Dubai’s property market can draw some comfort from Dar, who believes the city will recover quickly — with a little help from its wealthy neighbours.

“People who know the market say actually this is the time to invest… In the past whenever there is a problem in Dubai, the big brother sitting in Abu Dhabi comes to rescue. This time they took their time because they wanted to teach a lesson to Sheikh Mohammed because he was trying to be a renegade boy.

“Many people say Dubai is just gone, hopeless. But Dubai will never, ever go away. It has achieved a level of economic development which will help him to come out of this crisis…My own assessment is that the worst is over,” he said. “That is a statement you wouldn’t hear from very many people.”

New figures show the once-soaring housing market in California continuing an earthbound descent. According to an index that tracks home sales in major metropolitan areas, the price of a single-family home in June fell an average of 15.9% from last year. But the same index, the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Composite-20, released Tuesday, also reported a 25.3% price drop in Los Angeles, a 24.2% decline in San Diego and a 23.7% drop in the San Francisco Bay Area. Only Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix fared worse, with home prices falling 28.6%, 28.3% and 27.9%, respectively.

The S&P figures come on the heels of equally gloomy numbers from the real estate industry. On Monday the National Association of Realtors said the number of existing homes across the U.S. sold in July rose 3.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, while the national median price of an existing home fell around 7% to $212,400. For the same month the California Association of Realtors reported a 43% uptick in the number of existing homes sold statewide but a 40% median price slump, to $350,760, for existing homes.

Lower prices could help those Californians who’ve been priced out of the once-booming housing market, but the state is also among those hardest hit by the real estate bust, and sales volumes in many areas is being pushed by “deeply discounted, distressed sales,” according to CAR President William Brown.

Earlier this month foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac said more homes across the U.S. are ending up in the hands of mortgage lenders. The company tracks preforeclosure actions including notices of default sent to borrowers, public auctions of homes and bank repossessions. Last month some 28% of foreclosure activity nationwide involved banks repossessing properties under default, while almost a third of foreclosure activity in the Golden State involved so-called real estate-owned properties. Nationwide, foreclosure activity rose 55% on a year-over-year basis, but was up 85% in California.

Analysts don’t see the housing correction easing any time soon. In a research note Tuesday Merrill Lynch said home prices remain well above those reached before the bubbly heights of the housing boom and sees prices nationally falling a further 15% to 20% by the end of next year.

BMO Capital Markets echoed that view.

“Increasingly, our national housing crisis is slowly becoming a series of regional crises with most of the pain felt in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California. That said, regional price declines will be with us for a while and given that California represents roughly one-third of our GDP, housing will be a drag on economic growth for at least the next four quarters,” the broker wrote to clients Tuesday.