Global Investing

Amid yen weakness, some Asian winners

Asian equity markets tend to be casualties of weak yen. That has generally been the case this time too, especially for South Korea.

Data from our cousins at Lipper offers some evidence to ponder, with net outflows from Korean equity funds at close to $700 million in the first three months of the year. That’s the equivalent of about 4 percent of the total assets held by those funds. The picture was more stark for Taiwan funds, for whom a similar net outflow equated to almost 10 percent of total AuM. Look more broadly though and the picture blurs; Asia ex-Japan equity funds have seen net inflows of more than $3 billion in the first three months of the year, according to Lipper data.

Analysts polled by Reuters see more drops ahead for the yen which they predict will trade around 102 per dollar by year-end (it was at 77.4 last September). Some banks such as Societe Generale expect a 110 exchange rate and therefore recommend being short on Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese equities.

But the weak yen may not be unilaterally bad news for Asian companies. Morgan Stanley analysts have compiled a list of Asian shares that could gain from falling yen costs. Take India’s Maruti-Suzuki. It has zero exposure to yen in terms of revenue but its cost exposure (due to import or components) is 34 percent. A similar picture at China Motor Corp. in Taiwan. Another Taiwanese firm, semiconductor maker Siliconware Precision has a 2 percent revenue exposure to Japan but the yen accounts for 15 percent of its cost base, according to MS data.

Other examples.  MS highlights Taiwan’s casings maker Catcher which holds 54 percent of its debt in yen. It calculates that every 1 percent fall in the yen translates to 1.3 percent upside to its annual income. Tour operators and airlines could also benefit if they are able to send more visitors to newly-cheap Japan.

from UK News:

Walking the risk-reward tightrope in Iraq

It's fair to say that investing in Iraq is not for the faint-hearted.

Just last week more than 200 people were killed in suicide bombings across the country, while kidnapping and armed assault remain commonplace.

That said, more than 600 delegates still turned up to the Invest Iraq 2009 conference held in London this week, eager to find out what opportunities there might be in the oil, construction, petrochemicals, engineering, agriculture, transport and tourism industries, to name a few.

From City of London bankers to executives from Shell and Chevron, bosses from energy service companies and airport construction firms, management training specialists and security advisers, they were all there, milling around a west London hotel in their smartest suits, seeing what business they might be able to do.