Global Investing

For better or worse, hedge fund returns have a tendency to follow markets, in part because most long-short funds are net long most of the time.

So after a huge rebound in the stockmarket this year, which has helped hedge funds make up some much-needed ground, October proved a difficult month when the market fell in the second half of the month.

After all 2009's growing optimism, investors were suddenly concerned that a withdrawal of government stimulus would harm an economic recovery in its early stages.

So, after a bumper 2008 and a miserable 2009 for short-sellers, it was they who leaped to the fore again in October - dedicated short bias returned 1.61 percent, while long-bias funds lost 0.38 percent and long-short funds were flat.

However, the long bet may not be over for hedge funds. John Paulson, the man who made billions betting on the subprime crisis and profited last year from shorting banks, is going long Cadbury.

After a 40-percent gain, the rally in world stocks might be losing momentum.

For permabears who live on doom and gloom to make money this is just a blip which is going to end in tears.

David Tice, a 20-year veteran short seller who manages Federated Investors’ $1 billion short fund, says we are in for a secular bear market which is going to last for 10 years.

“I’ve never more been convinced than anything in my life that this is a suckers rally,” Tice says.

Sheltering from the credit crisis in so-called defensive stocks could prove a disappointment to investors and a great opportunity for short-sellers, according to Liontrust hedge fund manager James Inglis-Jones.

Inglis-Jones, who runs a hedge fund for Liontrust and who recently took on the First Income fund after the departure of star manager Jeremy Lang, has short positions in sectors such as tobacco and pharmaceuticals and has recently added more.

"It's an interesting opportunity when something is seen as safe," he told me. "When the company delivers a disappointment the payoff can be pretty good."