Where will the FDI flow?
For years the four mighty BRIC nations have grabbed increasing shares of world investment flows. But the coming years may not be so kind. These countries bring up the bottom of the Economic Freedom Index (EFI) for 2012. Compiled by Washington D.C.-based think-tank The Heritage Foundation the EFI measures 10 freedoms — from property rights to entrepreneurship – and according to a note out today from RBS economists, there is a strong positive link between a country’s EFI score and the amount of FDI (foreign direct investment) it can secure. So the more “free” a country, the more FDI inflows it can expect to receive — that’s what an RBS analysis of 2002-2008 investment flows shows.
So back to the BRICs. Or BRICS if you add in South Africa (part of the political grouping though not yet included in the BRIC investment concept used by fund managers). The following graphic shows Russia languishing at the bottom of the EFI, China just above Russia and India third from bottom. Brazil is sixth from bottom while South Africa ranks two places higher.
At the other end of the spectrum is tiny Singapore. Its EFI score is double that of Russia and between 2002-2008 it attracted FDI equivalent to 50 percent of its economy. Russia in contrast saw negative net FDI (outflows exceeded inflows)
What comes next will be interesting. China grabbed the most FDI in absolute terms in the past decade (around $1.3 trillion or almost half the $2.1 trillion flows to the 21 leading EMs) but RBS notes this is slowing. That’s because China’s low-value manufacturing base is becoming less competitive relative to the rest of Asia and stringent restrictions remain in place in many sectors. Corruption, red tape and general business-unfriendliness prevail. ”The decreasing allure of China from a manufacturing perspective means the country is at risk of suffering a decrease in FDI inflows in coming years,” RBS writes. The bank also notes the nature of FDI into China is changing: half the 2011 flows went to real estate.
On the other BRICS:
Home is where the heartache is…
On a recent trip home to Singapore, I was startled to learn just how much housing prices in the city-state have risen in my absence.
A cousin said he had recently paid over S$600,000 — about US$465,000 — for a yet-to-be-built 99-year-lease flat. Such numbers are hardly out of place in any major metropolis but this was for a state-subsidised three-bedroom apartment.
Soaring housing prices have fueled popular discontent — little wonder as median monthly household incomes have stagnated at around S$5,000.
For its part, the government — which houses 80 percent of people on the densely populated island — insists that public housing prices are shaped by ‘market forces’, pointing to a raft of financing schemes to help first-time buyers.
What’s less contentious is that Singapore is only part of a regional real estate boom that has driven property values by as much as 70 percent since the start of 2009 in cities such as Sydney, Hong Kong and Beijing.
Like Singapore, the government in China is acting to cool house prices that have skyrocketed in recent years out of the reach of a large swathe of its middle classes.
Chief among Beijing’s policy arsenal is social housing. The government is stepping up construction of public housing, targeting a rollout 36 million affordable homes from now until 2015. At the same time, clampdown on property speculation has also helped ease Chinese housing prices.
Can Eastern Europe “sweat” it?
Interesting to see that Poland wants to squeeze out more income from its state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector in the face of slowing economic growth and financing pressures.
Warsaw wants to double next year’s dividends from stakes in firms ranging from copper mines to utility providers to banks.
Fellow euro zone aspirant Lithuania has also embarked on reforms aimed at increasing dividends sixfold from what UBS has dubbed “the forgotten side of the government balance sheet”. It wants to emulate countries such as Sweden and Singapore where such companies are managed at arm’s length from the state and run along strict corporate standards to consistently grow profits.
The impetus isn’t entirely ideological. Poland and Lithuania are desperately trying to balance their books and under European Commission rules, privatisation proceeds cannot be taken into account when calculating the budget deficit but SOE dividends can.
But “sweating” government assets to yield higher profits doesn’t always come easy for central and eastern Europe. After all, this is a region where state ownership has been synonymous with inefficiency and stagnation.
Even so, the track record of emerging European governments on privatisation is mixed.
The haste at which state resources were sold off following the collapse of the Soviet Union had disastrous repercussions for economies such as Russia and Croatia. Recent efforts at state divestment from Poland to the Czech Republic to Romania have run aground on unrealistic price expectations, corruption or regulatory obstruction.
Japan fires latest FX wars salvo; other Asians to follow
Emerging central banks that sold billions of dollars over the summer in defence of their currencies might soon be forced to do the opposite. Japan’s massive currency intervention on Monday knocked the yen substantially lower not only versus the dollar but also against other Asian currencies. The action is unlikely to sit well with other central banks struggling to boost economic growth and raises the prospect of a fresh round of tit-for-tat currency depreciations. Already on Monday, central banks from South Korea and Singapore were suspected of wading into currency markets to buy dollars and push down their currencies which have recovered strongly from September’s selloff. The won for instance is up 6.9 percent in October against the dollar — its biggest monthly gain since April 2009. The Singapore dollar is up 4.5 percent, the result of a huge improvement in risk appetite.
Despite the interventions, the yen ended the session more than 2 percent lower against both the won and the Singapore dollar, and most analysts reckon Japan’s latest intervention is by no means its last. That’s bad news for companies that compete with Japan on export markets and will keep neighbouring central banks watching for the BOJ’s next move. “Asian central banks are likely to play in the same game, and keep currencies competitive via regular interventions,” BNP Paribas analysts said.
But the race to the bottom has been underway for some time. After all central banks in the West have cut rates, as in the euro zone, and embarked on more quantitative easing, as in the UK. One bank, Switzerland’s, has gone as far as to effectively establish a ceiling for its currency. And in Asia, Indonesia surprised markets with an interest rate cut this month while Singapore eased monetary policy. Many expect South Korea’s next move also to be a rate cut even though inflation is running well above target. Analysts at Credit Agricole predicted this week’s G20 meeting to yield no fruitful discussion on what they termed “currency manipulation”. “This lack of co-ordinated policy could trigger an escalation in ongoing currency wars,” Credit Agricole analyst Adam Myers told clients. That would in turn lead to a renewed acceleration in central banks’ dollar reserves, he added.
from Global News Journal:
‘Stop me before I bet again in Singapore’
A performer holds over-sized deck cards in front of the Resorts World Sentosa casino Feb. 14 (REUTERS/Pablo Sanchez)
At least 264 people in Singapore have asked to be put on a list that would prevent them from entering the city state's newly opened casino. Except for nine housewives and 19 unemployed people, the rest had jobs and probably families that they did not want to hurt with a gambling problem. Family members who think a relative might have a gambling problem can also apply to have them banned.
The $4.7 billion Resorts World Sentosa opened on Feb. 14, Valentines Day and the first day of the Chinese New Year, which was considered auspicious. It is the first of two casinos resorts (and a Universal Studios theme park) that is meant to help transform Singapore from a manufacturing and shipping center to a global hub city built on financial services and a playground for wealthy visitors. This is quite a change for a country often called the "nanny state" because of its many prescriptions and prohibitions, famously for instance, banning chewing gum for its irksome tendency to land up on sidewalks and onto people's shoes.
For decades Singapore had banned gambling as well, noting a Chinese proclivity towards gambling and its often attendant ruinations on families. But the ban didn't stop folks from taking a bus across the Singapore Strait to neighbouring Malaysia, which sports a hilltop casino in the Genting Highlands.
The government has taken a number of precautions, besides the voluntary exclusion list, to help people hedge their gambling habits. An on-site counselling service is available for problem gamblers, who can also set gaming limits for themselves with the house. You won't find ATM machines in the casinos. But the biggest discoruagement is the US$70 entry fee for Singaporeans and permanent residents. The high rollers won't be bothered, but it will be a strong deterrent to the chap who wanders in with just a a couple of hundred dollars in his pocket.
The precautions don't seem to be hurting business much. Within a week of opening the Resorts World casino had already attracted 128,000 visitors.
Singapore hopes casinos will generate spin-offs like luxury services and increased business for private bankers in a city which many say is fast becoming Asia's premier wealth management center.
There’s much more to Singapore than just casinos! This guide is great for people who are thinking of going there- http://www.whichoffshore.com/city-guides /singapore
