Weaker than expected economic data has pushed Citigroup’s G10 surprise indicator into negative territory. The indicator has tracked closely with the relative performance of equities vs bonds:
Italian business confidence fell unexpectedly to its lowest level in two and a half years on Thursday. Business confidence has historically given a good lead on GDP growth suggesting further weakness to come.
An update on currency moves against the dollar this year. Hungary tops the list, the EU opened the way to talks with Hungary on financial aid on Wednesday, ending a five-month dispute over the independence of its central bank. The UK pound and the euro remain positive for the year despite the UK falling back into recession and the continued euro zone crisis.