Global Investing

Clever Fed

November 4, 2010

Proof  that a little surprise can be quite big.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on more quantitative easing there were three possible outcomes that  could have threatened what is becoming a strong global equity rally. In short:

Between optimism and pessimism

October 29, 2010

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell,” wrote late billionaire investor and philanthropist John Templeton in 1994.

Investors love those emerging markets

October 28, 2010

No question that investors are in the throes of passion over emerging markets. The latest Reuters asset allocation polls show investors pouring money into Asian and Latin American stocks in October to the detriment of U.S. and euro zone equities. Exposure to equities in emerging Europe, Asia ex-Japan, Latin America and Africa/Middle East rose to 15.6 percent of a typical stock portfolio from 14.3 percent a month earlier.

Bad economic data, please

October 14, 2010

Interesting twist at the moment – how are financial markets going to view not-so-bad or good data out of the United States in the run-up to the next Federal Reserve meeting.

from Jeremy Gaunt:

And the investor survey says…

August 31, 2010

Reuters asset allocation polls for August are out. They show very little change from July, which suggests investors are still cautious and uncertain about what is happening.

from Jeremy Gaunt:

Wishful thinking on earnings?

August 26, 2010

The U.S. earnings season is over bar a handful of firms. It has been robust to say the least: Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research calculates that S&P 500 companies overall had second-quarter earnings growth of 38.4 percent. That was 11 percentage points higher than people had been expecting heading into the season.

from Jeremy Gaunt:

Micro versus macro

August 4, 2010

There is little doubt that the latest U.S. earnings season has been a good one for long-equity  investors. Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research calculates that with 67 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported, EPS growth -- both actual and that still forecast for those who have not filed yet -- has come in at 36 percent.

Emerging markets pull through

July 27, 2010

Emerging market stocks have been a big favourite among investment managers this year, based on the view that long-term growth patterns remain in place despite the wobbles in developed economies. But it has not been an easy ride. MSCI’s emerging market stocks index has been in an out of positive territory for much of the year.  It has just moved back into the black after a rally of  more than 16  percent since late May.

from David Gaffen:

5 Questionable Arguments Against the Double-Dip

July 7, 2010

Don’t tell George Costanza, but double dipping is all the rage these days. The possibility of the U.S. slipping back into recession after a brief period of growth is a hot topic of late – and while such an occurrence is unlikely, pundits are feverishly declaring that it can’t and won’t happen. 

What fund managers think

June 16, 2010

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch’s monthly poll of around 200 fund managers had a few nuggets in the June version, aside from the usual mood-taking.