Austrian subprime woes turn into political hot potato
The Austrian government debt agency’s two-year old foray into subprime investments has turned into a political hot potato and sparked an increasingly heated debate between the Social Democrats and conservatives, caught in an uneasy but coalition government without viable alternative.
Austria’s audit court last week revealed that the agency, which in its staid day job issues government bonds and makes sure state coffers are full when they need to be, started to moonlight on money markets in 2002 to earn a little extra money on the side.
Its cash position ballooned from an average 4.5 billion euros in 2002 to a peak of 26.8 billion euros in October 2007. This level “was not only determined by economic necessities, but was also meant to generate additional revenues,” the audit court said in its report.
Sure enough, as much as 10.8 billion euros went into asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), a class of structured investments that became disreputable when the subprime crisis broke out in 2007. Luckily, the debt agency got away only slightly bruised, with up to 380 million euros in possible losses from those investments.
Even though the loss looks manageable (it equals 0.13 percent of Austria’s GDP), and no rules seem to have broken, two former and the current finance minister – all conservatives – as well as the agency itself find itself at the centre of a debate seeking someone to blame.
The conservatives were caught slightly wrong-footed. Still basking in election successes based on voters’ perception that they, rather than the Social Democrats, were the safe pair of hands to steer the country through the economic crisis, they suddenly faced charges of gambling away taxpayers’ money.
Karl-Heinz Grasser, under whose reign as finance minister the agency’s side business started, and whose life after politics mainly consisted of modelling and launching an ill-fated joint venture with coffee-roasting heir and banker Julius Meinl, said the losses didn’t happen under him – dodging the question why the side business was started in the first place.
from Funds Hub:
Batten down the hatches
It's fashionable now for leading economists and financial wizards to claim that they saw the credit crunch coming and the kind of dislocation it would create. But how many have predicted where the next implosion will occur?
Dr Andrew Lo, founder of hedge fund firm AlphaSimplex, and director of the MIT laboratory for financial engineering, has spent his career studying market behaviour, publishing papers examining why quant funds imploded in August 2007, and trying to reconcile behavioural economics with efficient market theory.
He sees the next big meltdown in commercial mortgages, but this time it's pensions funds that will bear the brunt of the losses rather than banks. Lo points out that commercial mortgages have been packed and sold in the same way as residential mortgages - different levels of risk exposure sliced and diced and wrapped up together in one package with a triple A rating slapped on top.
But commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) are facing the same liquidity problems as RMBS following the sub-prime meltdown. When mortgages start to reset at higher rates this year the defaults will pile up and the losses will hit the end-investor - in this case, large pension funds in the US, Europe and Japan, says Lo.
"We are likely to see a number of pension funds having a hard time meeting their liabilities, and the government may have to step in and help out some of these insolvent funds," he says.
Why pension funds rather than banks, which had the greatest exposure to RMBS?
Lo says that large pension funds expanded their programmes into riskier areas like CMBS to capture additional yield during the low volatility, low return years.
