Global Investing

Optimism of the $5 mln+ in Spain, Ireland

Crisis, what crisis?

Wealthy investors across Europe are confident about the future of the euro zone and the efficiency of unpopular austerity policies, with the rich in bailed-out Ireland and Spain topping the list, according to a survey published by J.P. Morgan Private Bank on Wednesday. The study, conducted in May and June, said:

High Net Worth investors in Spain, Ireland and the UK were found to have the most optimistic outlook, with 92 per cent, 90 per cent and 85 per cent respectively believing the Eurozone will either manage to avert large defaults and is rewarded for stringent austerity, or one that survives but will look different than the current structure.

They were the most optimistic of the 325 individuals polled for the survey. Overall, over 75 percent for the investors had a positive view on the euro zone’s outlook.  Only six per cent said they expected a severe global depression.(The bank defines HNW investors as those with assets of over $5 million).

Similarly, while 45 percents of investors  consider European equities to be the most undervalued risk assets, as many as 69 percent of the Spanish polled held that view.

March bulls give way to April bears in emerging markets

The dust has settled on a scintillating first quarter for emerging markets but the cross-asset rally of the first three months has already run out of steam. A survey by Societe Generale of 69 EM investors shows that over half are bearish — at least for the near-term.

This marks quite a turn-around from the March survey, when 80 percent of investors declared themselves bullish on emerging markets. What’s more, investors are currently running very little risk and 47 percent of hedge fund respondents (these make up half the survey) feel they are over-invested in EM.  (The following graphic shows the findings — click on it to enlarge)

Almost a quarter of the hedge fund and real money investors are neutral tactically on the market, compared to just 4.5 percent last month. Serious optimism has dried up, SocGen commented:

Emerging Markets: the love story

It is Valentine’s day and emerging markets are certainly feeling the love. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch‘s monthly investor survey shows a ‘stunning’ rise in allocations to emerging markets in February. Forty-four percent of  asset allocators are now overweight emerging market equities this month, up from 20 percent in January — the second biggest monthly jump in the past 12 years. Emerging markets are once again investors’ favourite asset class.

Looking ahead, 36 percent of respondents said they would like to overweight emerging markets more than any other region, with investors saying they would underweight all other regions, including the United States. Meanwhile investor faith in China has rebounded  with only 2 percent of investors believing the Chinese economy will weaken over the next year, down from 23 percent in January. China also regained its crown of most favoured emerging market in February.

Last year, the main EM index plummeted more than 20 percent as emerging assets fell from favour. So what is the reason for this renewed passion in 2012?

from Funds Hub:

Live from the City Oscars 2010

I'll be at the Guildhall in London today for the latest run down of the financial sector's favourite brokers, analysts and fund managers.

from Commentaries:

Don’t hold your breath for European flotations

COLOMBIA/A web-based survey of more than 40 European institutional investors by investment bank Jefferies shows most -- 83 percent of those who responded -- are not expecting a re-opening of the IPO market in the UK and Continental Europe before the middle of 2010.

 

Only 23 percent of the analysts, portfolio managers and dealers surveyed reckon the IPO market will re-open by the end of this year.

Seems the world is still split on what type of companies will be floated though: