Global Investing

Less merging in emerging markets last year

Last year was not the best for mergers in emerging markets, according to Thomson Reuters data, which shows  mergers & acquisition activity down 4.6 percent from 2012 to $675.2 billion. The number of deals fell even more – by 11.3 percent to 12,748.

The drop-off in emerging M&A activity mirrors a 5 percent fall in the benchmark MSCI emerging stocks index last year, with investors more fearful about the emerging market growth outlook. But unlike stock market performance, emerging market deal activity outstripped the global total, which was down 6 percent from 2012 levels.

The biggest emerging market deal was Brazilian Grupo Oi’s $16 billion planned takeover over of Portugal Telecom,  Thomson Reuters said.

Buyers were most interested in targeting Chinese firms, with more than $200 billion of the deal total going to China, while Russian and Brazilian companies attracted little more than $50 billion each. Energy was the biggest sector, accounting for more than $150 billion in M&A activity, followed by financials at $85 billion.

Morgan Stanley was the most successful deal arranger in emerging markets, at $99 billion in announced deals, with Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse coming second and third. But fees were down a stiff 12.7 percent from those earned in 2012.

Record year for global bond markets in 2012

How good was 2012 for bond markets? Very good, by the look of the many records broken.

2012  was the strongest year for global high yield and investment grade debt on record, new issuance of corporate debt from emerging markets issuers was also the strongest since records began in 1980 and activity on global debt capital markets were overall up 10 percent from 2011, Thomson Reuters data shows.

Euro-denominated international corporate debt increased 69.5 percent, making 2012 issuance the second largest on record behind 2009.

No BRIC without China

Jim O’ Neill, creator of the BRIC investment concept, has been exasperated by repeated calls in the past to exclude one or another country from the quartet, based on either economic growth rates, equity performance or market structure. In the early years, Brazil’s eligibility for BRIC was often questioned due to its anaemic growth; then it was the turn of oil-dependent Russia. Over the past couple of years many turned their sights on India due to its reform stupor. They have suggested removing it and including Indonesia in its place.

All these detractors should focus on China.

China’s validity in BRIC has never been questioned. Aside from the fact that BRI does not really have a ring, that’s not surprising. China’s growth rates plus undoubted political and economic clout on the international stage put  it head and shoulders above the other three. And after all, it is Chinese demand which drives a large part of the Russian and Brazilian economies.

But its equity markets have not performed for years.

This year, Russian and Indian stocks are up around 20 percent in dollar terms while China has gained 9 percent and Brazil 3 percent. In local currency terms however China is among the worst performing emerging markets, down 5 percent. Brazil has risen 9 percent.

from Jeremy Gaunt:

Wishful thinking on earnings?

The U.S. earnings season is over bar a handful of firms. It has been robust to say the least: Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research calculates that S&P 500 companies overall had second-quarter earnings growth of 38.4 percent. That was 11 percentage points higher than people had been expecting heading into the season.

There may be more surprises ahead -- although which sort, remains in question. The research suggests that analysts still expect solid growth in the coming quarters and that the decline in U.S. economic strength over the summer has not changed their minds much.

Third-quarter earnings growth is estimated at 24.9 percent, down slightly from July estimates but higher than earlier in the year. Fourth-quarter estimates are at 31.8 percent.

from Commentaries:

Bankruptcy-related M&A at 5-year high – more to come?

This week's Thomson Reuters Investment Banking Scorecard shows bankruptcy-related M&A at a five year high.

 

There were five bankruptcy-related M&A deals announced during the week, including the acquisition of venture-backed public company Nanogen by French investment holding company Financiere Elitech for $25.7 million. 

 

So far this year there have been 173 bankruptcy-related deals, the highest level since the same period of 2004 when there were 202.

Everybody down

Thomson Reuters proprietary research shows the estimated earnings growth rate for S&P 500 index companies in the first quarter of this year to be minus 31.4 percent. As the chart below shows, all 10 sectors that comprise the index are expecting an earnings decline relative to a year earlier.

Slip slidin’ away

Thomson Reuters Research and Estimates finds that the blended growth rate for S&P 500 companies for the fourth quarter of 2008 now stands at -28.1 percent.  The blended growth rate combines actual earnings reported with estimates of those yet to come. What a decline.  On July 1st, the estimated growth rate for Q4 2008 was 59.3 percent; on October 1st, the estimated growth rate for Q4 2008 was 46.7 percent; and on January 1st, the estimated growth rate for Q4 2008 was -1.2 percent. If the final growth rate for Q4 2008 is -28.1 percent, it will mark the first time the S&P 500 has recorded six straight quarters of loss since Thomson Reuters began tracking earnings growth rates in 1998.

Zeitgeist check

Some more bits and bobs to capture the current mood among investors:

– Some stock indexes have started to fall below their 2008 lows, meaning the turn-of-the-year rally has petered out. Dead cat bounce?

– Analysts are becoming increasingly downbeat about corporate earnings. Seven of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500 are looking at a year-on-year decline in earnings, according to Thomson Reuters proprietary research. That’s the highest number of sectors in negative territory since Q4 2001.

– UBS economists have sharply revised down estimates for 2009 growth in Japan, China, much of the rest of Asia, and the euro zone. They now expect world GDP to grow a paltry 0.4 percent this year.