Global Investing

Poland, the lonely inflation targeter

May 9, 2012

Is the National Bank of Poland (NBP) the last inflation-targeting central bank still standing?

Hungary can seek IMF aid now. But can it cut rates?

April 25, 2012

The European Union has given Budapest the green light to seek aid from the IMF. (see here)  In fact, the breakthrough after five months of dispute does not let Hungary completely off the hook  — to get its hands on the money, Viktor Orban’s government will have to backtack on some controversial recent legislation, starting with its efforts to curb the central bank’s independence.  It remains to be seen if Orban will actually cave in.

Oil prices — Geopolitics or growth?

March 5, 2012

It’s the economy, stupid. Or isn’t it?

Brent crude has risen 15 percent since the end of last year, focusing people’s minds on the potential this has to choke off the recovery in world growth. But some reckon it is the recovery that’s at least partly responsible for the surging oil prices — economic data from United States and Germany has been strong of late. There are hopes that France and the United Kingdom may escape recession after all. And growth in the developing world has been robust.

Good reasons for rupee’s fall but also for recovery

November 22, 2011

It’s been a pretty miserable 2011 for India and Tuesday’s collapse of the rupee to record lows beyond 52 per dollar will probably make things worse. Foreigners, facing a fast-falling currency, have pulled out $500 million from the stock market in just the last five trading sessions.   That means net inflows this year are less than $300 million, raising concerns that India will have trouble financing its current account gap.  The weaker currency also bodes ill for the country’s stubbornly high inflation.

from Summit Notebook:

Geneva is for wealth management

October 5, 2009

Even for an American who's not wealthy, Geneva has a reputation as a global centre for wealth management - the place the world's rich come to stash their money and (they hope) make it grow.

Start building the bunker

September 9, 2009

They keep telling us that the recession is over so maybe now’s the time to start worrying about inflation. That’s the view many wealthy investors are already taking, reasoning that a little bit of the yellow shiny stuff will provide some comfort as we start piling our cash into wheelbarrows to do the weekly groceries shop.

from DealZone:

Switzerland’s pound of UBS cheese

August 20, 2009

When Switzerland sold its stake in the country's largest bank at the top end of its price range, it made a hefty profit on compensation for interest lost from shedding the mandatory convertible notes it held in the bank early. It's not as if it didn't deserve a big payoff, having gone to the mat with the mighty U.S. government to defend UBS over allegations that it aided and abetted wealthy American tax dodgers.

from Alexander Smith:

Is Jefferies right to be bullish on M&A in AM?

July 7, 2009

A bull(ish) note from growing investment banking group Jefferies Putnam Lovell predicting "a steady flow of M&A activity in the global asset management industry" for the second half of 2009.

Please invest, please

February 4, 2009

Hardly suprising that investment funds want their clients to cough up some money. It is, after all, how they get paid. So an appeal to pension funds from UBS Global Asset Management to stop sitting on the fence is not entirely pro bono. Nonetheless, a new note from the firm that trustees are actually risking things by hanging on to large cash reserves is worth a run through.

Zeitgeist check

January 26, 2009

Some more bits and bobs to capture the current mood among investors:

– Some stock indexes have started to fall below their 2008 lows, meaning the turn-of-the-year rally has petered out. Dead cat bounce?