Is the National Bank of Poland (NBP) the last inflation-targeting central bank still standing?
The European Union has given Budapest the green light to seek aid from the IMF. (see here) In fact, the breakthrough after five months of dispute does not let Hungary completely off the hook — to get its hands on the money, Viktor Orban’s government will have to backtack on some controversial recent legislation, starting with its efforts to curb the central bank’s independence. It remains to be seen if Orban will actually cave in.
It’s the economy, stupid. Or isn’t it?
Brent crude has risen 15 percent since the end of last year, focusing people’s minds on the potential this has to choke off the recovery in world growth. But some reckon it is the recovery that’s at least partly responsible for the surging oil prices — economic data from United States and Germany has been strong of late. There are hopes that France and the United Kingdom may escape recession after all. And growth in the developing world has been robust.
It’s been a pretty miserable 2011 for India and Tuesday’s collapse of the rupee to record lows beyond 52 per dollar will probably make things worse. Foreigners, facing a fast-falling currency, have pulled out $500 million from the stock market in just the last five trading sessions. That means net inflows this year are less than $300 million, raising concerns that India will have trouble financing its current account gap. The weaker currency also bodes ill for the country’s stubbornly high inflation.
They keep telling us that the recession is over so maybe now’s the time to start worrying about inflation. That’s the view many wealthy investors are already taking, reasoning that a little bit of the yellow shiny stuff will provide some comfort as we start piling our cash into wheelbarrows to do the weekly groceries shop.
When Switzerland sold its stake in the country's largest bank at the top end of its price range, it made a hefty profit on compensation for interest lost from shedding the mandatory convertible notes it held in the bank early. It's not as if it didn't deserve a big payoff, having gone to the mat with the mighty U.S. government to defend UBS over allegations that it aided and abetted wealthy American tax dodgers.
Hardly suprising that investment funds want their clients to cough up some money. It is, after all, how they get paid. So an appeal to pension funds from UBS Global Asset Management to stop sitting on the fence is not entirely pro bono. Nonetheless, a new note from the firm that trustees are actually risking things by hanging on to large cash reserves is worth a run through.