Global Investing

Calculating euro breakup shocks

February 6, 2012

Euro breakup risks, although subsiding, are still high on investor minds.

Almost one in two fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch last month said they expect a euro zone country to leave the monetary union.

Deutsche’s investment themes for 2012

December 8, 2011

We just finished our three-day Reuters 2012 Global Investment Outlook summit in London, New York and Hong Kong, where prominent money managers have discussed their outlook for next year. (For more click here)

from Jeremy Gaunt:

When things stagnate

October 25, 2011

Goldman Sachs researchers have been hitting the history books again, trying to divine what happens to currencies when economies stagnate. Answer:  Not as much as you might think

Booking profits

November 2, 2009

Last week was one of the worst for global equities in a long time. MSCI’s benchmark all-country index fell 4.3 percent, the most it has lost since the week ending March 8, just before this year’s stunning rally began. Emerging market stocks, meanwhile, dropped 5.6 percent in the week, the largest fall since mid- to late-February.

“Normal” volatility to help rally?

October 16, 2009

As the graphic above shows, volatility in U.S. stocks has re-entered what could be called normal territory after soaring higher during the financial crisis. The blue band is plus or minus one standard deviation around the 1990 to 2007 avverage.

The Big Five: themes for the week ahead

July 6, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

Q3 – CLUES AND CUES
- Global equity markets started the quarter positioned for economic stabilisation after a strong Q2 performance but, even so, EPFR data shows less than a third of the cash that flooded into money market funds in 2008 has exited in the year to date. The Q2 reporting season, which is about to kick off (Alcoa out this week), will show whether there are reasons for investors to draw down their cash holdings further. The U.S. data that came out before the long July 4 weekend held more negative surprises than positive ones, and macroeconomic confirmation of recovery will be needed to tempt more wary investors into equities.

The Big Five: themes for the week ahead

June 22, 2009

Five things to think about this week:

STALLING RALLY
- The global equity market rally has stalled in June and is threatening to go into reverse. With this week effectively the last full week of the second quarter, the temptation for many funds to book profits on such a lucrative quarter will be high. Any knock on boost to volatility would pose more risks for some of the trades that looked the most attractive in a lower volatility environment, such as cyclical versus defensives plays, emerging markets, and foreign exchange carry trades.

Zeitgeist check

January 5, 2009

– The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q4 2008 currently stands at -1.2 percent. Six months ago, this was estimated at 59.3 percent.